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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (4918)	1/21/2000 12:55:00 PM
From: Jenne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Just Don't Sell Us By James J. Cramer 1/21/00 11:29 AM ET Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer. We have listened to you readers who say to go with the best of breed with the best management and don't sell. We have heard the siren songs of those who would have you believe that every dip is an opportunity. And we just bought 1,000 shares of Just Don't Sell Us down 5 bucks. Don't know what stock Just Don't Sell Us is? That's the name I am switching JDS Uniphase (JDSU:Nasdaq - news) to on our position sheets. We are done with calling it JDS Uniphase because that sure doesn't cut it. That's not what it's about. That doesn't get the point across: Don't sell this stock. Join the discussion on TSC Message Boards. This morning at our research meeting, eager to incorporate the Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq - news) phenomenon into our thinking, I brought up the notion of staying long the highest-quality stocks we have, even after they had run. I took a step further. I said on any weakness, I want to build the best of the best. That meant Just Don't Sell Us. It is the best of breed with the best of management in a soon-to-be-dominant industry. And I am getting the name in the sheets changed to Just Don't Sell Us to remind me next time the stock is up 60. Otherwise we will have another Broadcom on our hands.

To: t2 who wrote (4918)	1/21/2000 3:01:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

CORRECTED: t2, I agree about a little profit taking. I did some intraday trading and I still ended up with my original position. Next week market will be up. Every Tom, Dick and Harry will want to get into Just Don't Sell ( per Jenny, and Cramer GGG ). A thought on the current concerns about oil prices from The Dismal Scientist: dismal.com Even though the U.S. still imports a substantial share of the oil it uses, oil expenditures as percent of GDP have fallen from over 8% in 1981 to about 3% today. With these changes, it is hard to believe that rising oil prices represent the same constraints on growth that they have in the past, simply because, if they did, this would imply that the economy would be growing even faster than it is now if oil prices had held at early 1999 levels. Indeed, it is the case that the economy has learned important lessons from past shocks and has become much more robust as a result. This is most certainly a New Economy. TA ---- A Not Very Shocking Shock By Michael Boldin 1/17/00 11:59 AM ET Not only does the U.S. economy show a seemingly indefatigable growth rate, but it also has the gall to barely miss a beat after being hit by a sizable, OPEC-driven increase in oil prices in 1999. During the past year, gasoline prices rose over 75%, the largest 12-month increase since 1980. But right now, an oil-shock-begets-a-sudden-recession scenario is unfathomable as GDP seems poised to grow in the 3.5% range in the first half of 2000. Does this mean that oil shocks are no longer an important macroeconomic event? Probably, as New Economy forces seem to be immune to many of the supply-side disruptions that derailed previous expansions. While there are some unique aspects to this oil shock, the evidence points to a significant diminution in the general economic consequences of oil price increases. The latest increase in oil prices is similar to past oil shocks in that it is based on an agreement among the OPEC countries to cut oil production. The price per barrel has been above $20 per barrel since mid-1999 and was as high as $28 in December. This compares to an average price of $14 for all of 1998 and the first quarter of 1999. Part of the most recent spike was due to pre-Y2K stockpiling and a temporary production stoppage in Iraq. Now, oil prices are holding in the $25 neighborhood and, at best, may only fall to $20 over the next twelve months. Admittedly, oil prices have been above $20 in this expansion and the recent jump is not as large in percentage terms as those observed during the infamous oil shocks of the 1970's and the 1990 Gulf War. Nonetheless, a doubling in price of such an important commodity simply cannot be ignored. In fact, oil price increases have been linked with prior slowdowns and recessions such that it would be reasonable for someone to explore historical relationships between GDP and oil prices and conclude that a 100% increase in oil prices would cause a recession that would cut GDP by as much as 10%. Now, it seems that the economy gained strength from falling oil prices in 1997 and 1998 but fails to be hindered by oil price increases, the complete reversal of prior patterns. To see the change, compare the following two charts that match percent changes in GDP to prior percent changes in oil prices (both variables are measured over half-year periods and the oil prices variable on the X axis has been lagged). The first chart uses 1970 to 1984 as the sample period and shows a strong negative correlation; the second uses 1985 to 1999 and shows a very marginal negative relationship. (The lines in the charts represent the best fit between the variables.) More complicated analysis that allows for very flexible lagging relationships, the possibilty of nonlinear effects, and controls for additional forces that also affect inflation and interest rates shows similar results: something drastic has changed in the economy such that higher oil prices have little consequence on output, especially compared to the infamous shocks of the 1970's. One point to note is that the latest episode of OPEC collusion has primarily raised world prices without disrupting the primary channels of distribution. While this action can cut into the profitabilty of large users of oil products, many firms use the futures markets and other hedging instruments to insulate themselves from commodity market volatilities. In short, financial innovations have transferred much of the risks of oil and other commodity price shocks to speculators that are better prepared to handle any unexpected price movements. Manufacturers can now concentrate on production, which helps to keep productivity growing and the current expansion on track. A second change or economic evolution is simply based on the fact that each large increase in oil prices encourages greater worldwide oil expoloration, the development of new energy sources, and energy-saving technologies. Even though the U.S. still imports a substantial share of the oil it uses, oil expenditures as percent of GDP have fallen from over 8% in 1981 to about 3% today. With these changes, it is hard to believe that rising oil prices represent the same constraints on growth that they have in the past, simply because, if they did, this would imply that the economy would be growing even faster than it is now if oil prices had held at early 1999 levels. Indeed, it is the case that the economy has learned important lessons from past shocks and has become much more robust as a result. This is most certainly a New Economy. =========================== Message #4918 from t2 at Jan 21 2000 12:36PM Tunica, I think we have a little profit taking for now. No big deal. We should be off to the races once we get to about 2PM. Think about it. Earnings next week. S and P thing always a possibility. Forward guidance is expected to be great. Heard the Lucent cc yesterday. Last question dealt with Lucent's optical suppliers. The CEO had talked to their supplier, JDS and mentioned that "vertical" demand has been experienced. Working with JDS to work out bottlenecks. We are set to roll......Again!!!! Message #4918 from t2 at Jan 21 2000 12:36PM Tunica, I think we have a little profit taking for now. No big deal. We should be off to the races once we get to about 2PM. Think about it. Earnings next week. S and P thing always a possibility. Forward guidance is expected to be great. Heard the Lucent cc yesterday. Last question dealt with Lucent's optical suppliers. The CEO had talked to their supplier, JDS and mentioned that "vertical" demand has been experienced. Working with JDS to work out bottlenecks. We are set to roll......Again!!!!