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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn Norman who wrote (36719)	1/21/2000 6:31:00 PM
From: Orion	Respond to of 93625

Yo_Glenn Another bad news, Nintendo's Dolphin DELAYED till late 2001.....may be LATER. To bad once more nothing to compete with the Rambus technology, Glenn ! Do not hear the Bull : PSII WON'T be a HUGE HIT dailyradar.com The PS2 and the Dolphin Delay It looks as if Nintendo's Dolphin may be delayed until next year. Find out how this news will affect the launch of the PlayStation2. Try to act surprised when you hear this news. Nintendo may not be able to meet the proposed fall 2000 launch date for the Dolphin. (Are you still acting surprised?) Yeah, we know that delays are par for the course in Nintendoland, but after a Morgan Stanley Dean Witter report on the company, it seems that a delay until at least 2001 will be in order. For starters, when pressed by the investment analyst firm, Nintendo would not commit to the 2000 starting date, instead taking the stance "that it has not adopted a forerunner strategy". Nintendo added that even with a delay, the company would still be able to sell large amounts of units. In real world terms, if the company were on schedule, they wouldn't be talking this way. Pure and simple. Nintendo also failed to include any units of Dolphin hardware in its 2000 forecasts, and when asked what would happen if the launch was pushed back a year, the reply was that the company could still profit as a latecomer. The most troubling detail, however, was the fact that development tools have only been shipped to first party and second party (partly owned by Nintendo, like Rare) developers. It doesn't seem as if any third-party developers have signed contracts yet. With development tools most likely not ready for third party game makers until this spring, it's unlikely and almost impossible for games to be ready by fall of this year (games usually take a year to develop). In fact the report predicts that the system will ship in the spring of 2001, and we think even that date may be a little early. (For the analysis of the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter report check out the Nintendo section of Daily Radar.) This all adds up to an almost inevitable delay for the Dolphin, which is phenomenally good news for the PlayStation2. If Nintendo's new system is indeed a year late, the PlayStation2 will benefit greatly in the following ways: The PlayStation2 will have little head-to-head competition. With the new Dolphin out of the picture, the PlayStation2 will own the "shiny new thing" market. Its main competition will be the more affordable Dreamcast. Expect Sega either to drop the price of its console or to offer special package deals to keep momentum during the PS2 launch. Either way, the PlayStation2 will have an open opportunity to corner the cutting edge console game market, which will kickstart the console's drive towards mainstream success. The PlayStation2 will be more attractive to developers. Even though some developers have experienced difficulties programming for the PlayStation2, at least they have development tools. With the uncertainty surrounding Dolphin's launch date (developers are just as skeptical of the proposed launch schedule as we are), many developers have taken a wait-and-see attitude toward the console. Compare that to the PlayStation2 which has already been embraced by a majority of third-party developers, and you can see why companies looking into new development would choose the PS2 over the Dolphin. Retail shelf space will be more available. For hardware manufacturers, just getting space in retail outlets for a new product is an important and often trying ordeal. Because the PlayStation2 will be the only new console of the year (Nuon doesn't count, really, it doesn't), it will be the centerpiece of many an electronics retailer storefront. PlayStation2 peripherals will advance faster. Peripheral manufacturers tend to play it safe and develop add-ons for the most possible consoles. Now that the Dolphin is likely delayed, these companies can focus their attentions on the PlayStation2 more than ever. The competition should be tough, but with only one new console in town and the Dreamcast a year old, third party peripheral makers should be in full swing creating new PS2 hardware. Sony will be able to spread out its launch titles. A massive launch lineup is an excellent weapon in the early stages of a console war. Considering the number of developers making games for the console (more than 250 now), Sony could have a mini launch glut of titles. If the Dolphin is delayed, Sony would have time to spread the launch schedule out a bit to make sure its main titles are finished completely and that lesser known titles don't get overshadowed by the biggies. The PlayStation2 launch date may surprise us. Without the Dolphin as direct competition, the PlayStation2 launch date is no longer as strategic as it would be during a console war. This could mean that Sony will either push up the launch date (as rumored), or it could also mean that Sony could push the launch date into late fall. Either way the lack of competition will make the PlayStation2 launch date much harder to predict.