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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (97093)	1/21/2000 8:09:00 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 186894

Mary, re: "You are one of the few people on your thread that I respect. You have a good sense of humor, you are polite most of the time, and you are kind to your mother. You were also once a serious money manager - back in the go,go days early on when mutual funds were still more of a novelty." <g>. John

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (97093)	1/21/2000 8:11:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 186894

Mary, you need a laugh: Intel is the most widely recommended must-have in a defensive market, with ugly sibling Advanced Micro Devices [AMD] also now mentioned after it surprised everybody by crushing fourth-quarter estimates. I hadn't heard it called that before. SOME SAY US TECH STOCKS MAY SUFFER LEAST ON BIG FED HIKE By Mark Pender NEW YORK (MktNews) - U.S. technology stocks and semiconductor and telecom shares in particular are well shielded from an aggressive Federal Reserve and may prove themselves to be a safe haven, a possibility that may go against expectations but perhaps not against common sense, some analysts say. This reasoning may seem odd, given that the Nasdaq jumped nearly 30% in December, P/E ratios in the 60s or 70s are considered constructive, and Fed officials rarely miss a chance to complain that overspeculation in technology shares is boosting the wealth effect and draining investment from other industries. When rate jitters first struck the stock market in the first week of the New Year, technology stocks suffered the most as the Nasdaq fell over 9.7% while the Dow Industrials inched down barely 0.9%. Dealers reported heavy rotation out of technology stocks and into traditional blue chips. They blamed unusually aggressive profit-taking, sparked by the new tax year and exaggerated by December's unprecedented gains, and worries about unsustainable product demand. But now, nearing the end of January, technology stocks may offer the most short-term value, making them best positioned to play defense against an aggressive tightening cycle, some analysts say. At least, one should pause before presuming that aggressive Fed tightening would push technology stocks over the edge. IBES economist Joe Abbott says an economic slowdown and the resulting decline in equity investment put companies with superior profit potential in highest relative demand. "If the Fed tightens more than people think, I would rather be in technologies because that's where the fastest earnings growth will be," Abbott said. He stressed that profits in the sector reflect overwhelming demand for their products. In the past, technologies, which are traditionally heavy borrowers, have fared poorly relative to the general market when rates go up significantly. What was behind the 9.7% correction was belief that the Fed's hands would be free to raise rates after Y2K quietly came and went. But the pace of Internet demand is difficult to exaggerate and may prove resistant to a slowdown, analysts say. Talk now says demand for Internet-related products and services will double in two years. Fourth-quarter earnings from Intel [INTC] and Microsoft [MSFT], to name two, surpassed unusually high estimates, led to a fury of estimate upgrades, and strongly countered industry forecasts that demand was over its peak. Arthur Hogan, chief strategist at Jefferies & Co., says analysts have been stunned by the strength of fourth-quarter technology profits and are now going through a "readjustment" period. Beating estimates just Friday morning: Sun Microsystems and Gateway. "Results are tremendous and even where there were problems, they were in product execution, not in demand," said Hogan. Technical conditions also favor the sector. Some described the big selloff earlier in the month as carnage. Given the sector's strong profitability and product demand, many say the sector is now in fact oversold. Should technologies benefit relative to the whole market, which sub-sectors would benefit the most within the group? Semiconductors and telecom firms, the heart and the backbone of the Internet are among those that best weathered the recent slump. The Philadelphia semiconductor index, among the best performers now, slumped a comparatively mild 6.1% in that first week period. Intel is the most widely recommended must-have in a defensive market, with ugly sibling Advanced Micro Devices [AMD] also now mentioned after it surprised everybody by crushing fourth-quarter estimates. MCI WorldCom [WCOM] despite, or because of, its current tailspin is a favorite among the telecoms, with the traditional ATT [T] also recommended as a good play during an upward rate cycle. Whether the Fed is or isn't aggressive the week after next, these new views of fundamentals and technicals suggest that technologies are going to continue to outperform the market, and perhaps at a yet faster rate. As one long-time trader said this week in response to the big earnings numbers, "You don't have to like them, you just have to own them."

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (97093)	1/21/2000 8:42:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 186894

Mary, That is why I wrote you the note. Here we are celebrating an 1100% gain on GZTC, long, not short, in less than a year, a 2000% gain on Medarex, long not short, and several other value stocks, and you are talking about how we are always bearish. That is the silly part. Just because somebody doesn't like a stock you love that hasn't grown for two years does not make them bears on everything. But, then, it would be too much to expect anyone who loves Intel to actually investigate before they make statements. Even the top analyst on the stock doesn't read company financial reports. <g> BTW, the Dow was only about 2000 when I left the mutual fund business. I have never been let go anywhere, except for picking strawberries when I was 12 years old. <g> Good Luck, Mary, but try to expand your mind in the investing world instead of rolling it around one stock that may be able to keep fooling people and may not. There is some value to diversifying.