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To: Tom Kearney who wrote (91841)	1/22/2000 12:22:00 AM
From: JBL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Tom, Irrational expectations and manic speculation is the problem. An increasing number of unsophisticated investors are, without knowing it, taking enormous risks thanks to unscrupulous sell-side analysts, liberal accounting practices, and outright fraud. History, experience and logic, tells me that this phenomenon is not sustainable. I've lived in SE-Asia for a few years, and I've seen many very confident (and smart) individuals fall flat on their face. Microsoft is a great company, but it is not worth a half trillion dollars. ICGE is an interesting concept, but it's valuation shows that things are completely out of hand.

To: Tom Kearney who wrote (91841)	1/23/2000 12:04:00 AM
From: dbblg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>And many of us are standing by with plenty of cash to pour in on the next 10% dip. Hmmm, I haven't put fresh money into the market since last fall, but it is going to take a lot more than a 10% dip to tempt me to deploy my cash. >>People can get into the market much easier now. I'm not sure what you mean by that; could you please clarify when you get the chance? Personally, I think the risk of a dip that feeds on itself is higher than at any point in the past several years. First, I'm taking it as a given that one of the OLB's is going to encounter serious difficulties--certainly technical, possibly financial--if we hit any real turbulence. Remember, Schwab very nearly let a single Hong Kong investor blow them up in 1987. Even if, as in Schwab's case, the situation proves not to be all that serious after the dust clears, I suspect any confusion will encourage a significant number of investors to sell while they are confident that they can. At the very least, the normal deleveraging that goes on in declines may accelerate to the point of snowballing into something scarier. Second, while I am skeptical of those who claim that daytraders are behind the ramp in tech stocks, I have become increasingly concerned that daytraders are masking the extent to which Naz market makers have shifted their roles. After the 1987 plunge, regulators rebuked market makers for disappearing when the going got tough. Several sets of reforms later, market makers' ability to make profits, and their concommitant willingness to shoulder risk, has declined to the point where trading liquidity has diminished markedly, and is provided in many hot stocks by daytraders. I don't think anyone expects them to be around in a serious slide; I certainly don't. I haven't sold much (I dumped NBCI into the AOL-Time-Warner bounce and got stopped out on FATB) and don't intend to, but I've taken to mentally lopping 60% of my portfolio total when I mark to market. I hope I'm not being too optimistic...

To: Tom Kearney who wrote (91841)	1/23/2000 1:59:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 164684

Greenspan Said Anxious Over U.S. Imports Jan 23 12:34pm ET TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said on Sunday that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had told him that the U.S. import binge could not last forever. With the wealth effect in the United States, money was not being made from producing goods and services and so had no outlet but through imports, Miyazawa quoted Greenspan as saying in a weekend meeting during a gathering of finance ministers and central bankers of Group of Seven rich nations. ``At this point what's troubling him is that the money is going into imports, and this may be good for the people of the world but for the American economy this cannot continue for long,' Miyazawa said, speaking on a television talk show. Miyazawa said he had told Greenspan that he believed the U.S. stock market rise was a bubble and an adjustment was inevitable. ``I asked Greenspan if he had given a warning signal to the market so that people later could not criticize him for doing nothing, and Greenspan just laughed,' Miyazawa said. Despite Greenspan's frequent flagging of a red light against the excessive rises in stock prices, the market had taken his warning as a green light, Miyazawa said.