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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mephisto who wrote (33887)	1/22/2000 11:40:00 AM
From: Lone Star	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Regarding the co.'s in the Naz making it run,not only is the good news factored in, good news that hasn't arrived is factored in!!. People are paying huge premiums on the future, the prices of Yahoo, Aol, etc. are insane BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS. The debate, and this is what makes a market, is whether one can use historical standards as measuring sticks. GE, Ford, et al are great companies but never experienced explosive growth like some argue the internet based ( and biotech possibly) co.s could. That's the key word, could. So we'll see. Now to AMAT and the equip. sector. More reasonable to at least look at historical measures because this is a relatively mature industry,with real earnings. We are at historically high multiples, but our argument is the growth projected, driven by the same-said tech explosion. Raising interest rates has always slowed the market,but how much will it dampen the high flyers. Yes, risk free investments cut into stock portfolios in the past, but will naz players who have been seeing 50-3000% gains per year recently if they chose well move to 7% investments? the ones who didn't hit big last year want to do it this year. So, 2000 will not be as easy as '99 ( geez- naz up 80%- may never see anything like it again) but will be a stock pickers year, in the naz players opinion. Since 1/1/00, still a lot of emerging co's making huge moves upward, 25-50% a day in some cases. To me, holding AMAT through thick and thin is still the easiest thing to do.