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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (88912)	1/22/2000 1:51:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571636

Goutama - <Intel can't just increase the wafer starts at will, just to produce enough high speed parts to meet any pent up demand.> Not "at will", but it will make more wafer starts incrementally as capacity ramps. ~10% to >90% by the end of the year on a monotonic curve. <It would cause them to end up with a lot more lower speed parts than they could sell at reasonable ASPs. JMHO> This is not true. If one assumed Coppermine MHz performance were static, you might have an argument. But that is not the case. PB

To: Goutam who wrote (88912)	1/22/2000 2:10:00 AM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1571636

Goutama, <Intel can't just increase the wafer starts at will, just to produce enough high speed parts to meet any pent up demand. It would cause them to end up with a lot more lower speed parts than they could sell at reasonable ASPs. JMHO.> I think Intel's problem has to do more with the speed of the ramp than anything else. What I mean is that CuMines are only part of the mix and Intel will be selling a lot of Katmai PIII in Q1 and Q2. That will provide a nice cover for AMD to accelerate product introductions while cutting prices along the way. Very favorable climate for increasing market share. Chuck

To: Goutam who wrote (88912)	1/22/2000 2:07:00 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1571636

IMHO, this is what AMD is trying to do with its price cuts - migrate the consumers to 650MHZ and above. They are trying to shift demand to high speed parts where INTC won't be able to satisfy the increased demand. Intel can't just increase the wafer starts at will, just to produce enough high speed parts to meet any pent up demand. It would cause them to end up with a lot more lower speed parts than they could sell at reasonable ASPs. JMHO. Goutama, yes I think you are right.....for the past 8 mos AMD has been very savvy in terms of their marketing, coming up with new products and grabbing market share. However with this last price cut, I could figure out what they were doing but what you said makes very good sense. ted

To: Goutam who wrote (88912)	1/22/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: steve harris	Respond to of 1571636

Goutama, re:"INTC won't be able to satisfy the increased demand" I agree. We have listened to the iNtEL static trying to explain how: demand exceeds supply fabs take up to a year to be brought on line we weren't planning on the demand we saw ramping a new product takes time losing Gateway DELL may pre-announce HP Athlons "I wish we had more product" And now iNtEL says in Q1 these supply problems will be gone. Bringing more supply on line. Investing billions of $$. That quick huh? iNtEL is betting they will have their Q3 ".18 transition" problem corrected by then. They have plenty of facilities already running these higher speed chips. iNtEL can announce a price war, but they have no supply to fuel the war. They can't meet demand now. I don't know if their supply problem will resurface by then; I believe it will continue. Ready on the right, ready on the left, all clear on the firing line. Lock and load! steve