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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (15907)	1/22/2000 4:49:00 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Good questions, Mike. It seems to me that lurking around every one of the GG thread favorites there are business cum technology questions which have no clear answer. 1. NTAP is growing faster than EMC but will that continue when EMC sells its own appliances? 2. As optical telephony expands will LU and NT make some of their own equipment that JDSU now makes? 3. Will Nokia etc. simply continue to ignore CDMA and make their own slower devices cheaper and cheaper until some day QCOM's patents run out? 4. Will GMST's patents hold up in court? 5. Will broadband make the PC unnecessary because the web servers will do everybody's computing? If the web servers do the computing will the user care what operating system is under the hood? 6. Will sheer size make CSCO less agile? 7. Will SEBL eventually be defeated by SAP? by ORCL? Off topic, but the much loved pharmaceutical firms have the long term risk of price control as pharmaceutical expenses keep rising as a percent of people's take home pay. I just use this example to point out that every business has problems. Lacking a good answer to any of the above, some of which are admittedly rather remote worries, what can we do but diversify? If NTAP defeats EMC we'll still have QCOM,CSCO etc. As to what's expensive, with the prices that we see now I think there is a built in expectation of a minimum of 40% growth in the profits and sales for most of these fabulous companies that we talk about. Stocks that slow down are slashed in half. But as long as the growth continues at 40/50% per year we are okay. When the internet is everywhere the growth rates and the P/E's will finally descend. JMHO

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (15907)	1/22/2000 11:45:00 AM
From: chaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, when I saw your response to the valuation ratios I posted last night, the next thing I did was pull up a 100 week comparison chart of the two. Since my mouse still isn't highlighting, I can't give you a link but you can get it the same way I did. The valuation "advantage" in NTAP's favor is not just a recent development...it began ~ 15 months ago, really got moving within the past six, and went nuts during the last three. This corresponds (roughly) to the time frame that DS has been pounding the table about the stock. While we're basically here to discover gorillas, I wonder if we haven't also unmasked our very first hypester as well. :))

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (15907)	1/22/2000 1:15:00 PM
From: BirdDog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<<1) In the long term, what is it about NTAP>> Expectations... << 3) Depending on the answer to #2, am I better off looking at other product categories in which to play Gorilla/King Games, or am I better off playing those games in this turf?>> I own both of these. NTAP was a double investment for me. It is now worth over 3 times my holdings in EMC (since oct). I do definitely believe this sector is going to explode over the next five years. I think even Guilder has written this opinion also? NTAP has a product that their customers just plain love. That cache is fantastic...saves alot of time in the office and also depends on the way NTAP has set up their storage. The CEO of NTAP has said that they use no different storage than anyone else, same hard drives, can use anything for the actual storage. It is the way they set up the entire system and cache that is special. The CEO has also said it is not easy to accomplish what they have done...many have tried and failed. (This doesn't mean it's a Gorilla). But when you add this to the impending explosion of network storage....You got a fantastic investment... I invite everyone to do their DD on this company and sector..I think you will be happy with it.. Ron