Well, Microsoft did not emphasize it can compete with SUNW, because that is not an issue !!!!That is the kind of logic of reverse thinking, and you should apply this logic in stock play for big cap , quality stocks, like Microsoft, i.e when people sell, you buy.So, when SUNW announce in public that it can compete with Win2k, it really means it can not compete, as it is a concern to SUNW, so it need to announce in public that it can compete.
People said there is no room for Microsoft to grow in the future, well, it is all nonsense. The current units shipped of PC is around 100000000 units per year. Let's assume in the past four years, the
growth of PC shipment every year is 20&, so in 1999, the shipment of PC was 83 MM units, and in 1998 the shiped units of PC was 70MM units, and in 1997 , 58 MM units , in 1996 , it was 48 MM units , and
40 MM units in 1995. The average life of PC is about 4 years, so in year 2000 , most likely those who bought their PCs in 1996 will buy new PCs, that is there will be 48 MM additional PCs to be bought in y2k by those who bought their old PCs in 1996. It is also possible those bought PCs with WIN95 in 97 will upgrade their OS to win2k( here I assume those hardware in 1997, 98 can run win2k, or those guys will also upgrade their PCs ), let's say 50% of those who bought PCs in 97
with win95 will upgrade their OS to win2k, so there will be additional 29MM copies of win2k to be bought by those who bought their PCs in 1997 with win95 for OS upgrade. So, if you add these two together, you will expect additional 77 MM copies of win2k to be bought in 2k due to OS upgrade or those who buy the most advanced PCs
with the latest OS, i.e win2k. This additional sale for Microsoft is due to the release of win2k and people get rid of their old PCs and buy new ones. During a normal cycle where there is no new products being released. In year 1999, 100MM units of PCs being shiped, say 40MM units was due to the people who bought their PCs in 1995, and bought new pcs in 1999, i.e about 60 MM units was shiped due to the first time buyers of PCs. Let's assume in year 2k, 10% growth of first time PC buyer, i.e , there will be 66 MM new pc buyers in year 2k. So if you add these number together, we will expect 143 MM copies of win2k being sold in year 2k, and the cycle just repeat by itself year afer year till next new products being released. So, Microsoft's PC OS business will soar in year 2k and much room to grow in the future in this product line. Microsoft was also exploring new business territories, such as Home smart appliances, and Microsoft has the most chance to be successful in this new business field, because most of the smart will not only talk with each other, but they will all need to interface with the PCs.
Those who sold in the past couple of days , well, I am sorry for them, especially they sold when the long waited win2k is due to be released. |
