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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37799)	1/22/2000 1:17:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 99985

Terry: When the XAU performs this badly in relation to POG, it has usually signalled an impeding drop in both. My best guess is that we will soon see a capitulation low in the XAU accompanied by a sharp drop in POG. Probably quickly followed by strong rallies in both. I have heard reports that much of the ongoing selling in gold stocks reflects the pending termination of one or more gold funds. I don't know if this is true. But it would hike the odds of a quick turnaround if it is.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37799)	1/22/2000 4:31:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

That's a great looking chart, Terry. Thank you. The problem with it is that supports are almost always broken in Bear Markets whereas resistances are usually broken in Bull Markets. The big question here is if the XAU has in fact bottomed out at the 48.67 level in August 98. The answer at this point is undoubtedly Yes. I wonder, however. I think we get a retest of these lows. I don't think it will hold. It's not that I think that the XAU needs to break to new lows before it rallies. It doesn't. The problem is the High Tech Mania. I tend to think that investors are selling their gold hedge to invest in Hi Tech. Maybe this indicates a bottom. But I wouldn't count on it. The Bears get more bearish as the bulls get richer. Isn't that the bottom line as of Jan 22, 2000, as far as index investing is concerned?