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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (58918)	1/22/2000 8:24:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

o/t Gary re: WM... I can say that everything I read, hear and see; is that the sharpest, most patient & most successfull - "Old Money" Wall Streeters ARE starting to accumulate the Bank & S&L sector and are frothing at the possibilities. Over time - these guys are rarely wrong. One has to stay nimble during the strong potential of a sustained rate hike environment, but the "V" bottom history of this sector, its recent October "V" bounce and the strong bottomline performance in comparison to its historic discount to the market here is compelling. This sector stands out like a sore thumb as perhaps even a better sector to benefit via rotation than the oilpatch - as soon as the Fed does its thing.Financials are a "core" sector and the "oilpatch" is more of a smaller - speciality sector. I think there may be more % upside to the S&L sector from April on; than will exist in the OSX index for example; I'd say 50% for Banks/S&L's (WM from $22 to $35+(I see $40 personally) vs. 30% for the OSX Index (90-95 to 120-125) by year end. As the Bond Market has allready priced in an initial Fed Hike - I can not imagine the Bank's take too much of a further hit and may even stage a "relief" rally on the initial Fed move in Feb imho. "IF" the Fed does not hike in Feb; I think the market explodes and the financials lead the move... I really think that Greenspan & Co will pull off the greatest tightrope balancing act in modern history here shortly.This is a Presidential Election Year - don't forget the significance of this - against the Fed backdrop... While we will have a temporary spike through $30 crude; powerfull political pressure is allready being brought to bear on OPEC in advance of what is now enivitable. This is really a win-win scenario; as OPEC will acquiesse at the request of the Global Economies and will gain the benefit of a soft landing as they "agree" to ease producion constraints in 2H 2000. I think the market has proven that they can swallow $22-$25 crude oil here and not miss a beat. A temporary spike thru $30 will be the "pause" that refreshes the overall market - and then we will settle into a near nirvanna-like atmosphere of $22-$24 Oil , 6 1/2ish% bonds and a slow steady march to DOW 12,500-13,000. I think we will see a substantial reshuffling within the market, but no major crash in 2000. Earnings are simply too good and a small Fed Hike may be enough to just slow things down a bit and keep them from over heating; especially if the NASDQ cools and the money rotates & reallocates into small caps and adds breadth to the market. I think both the S&L & Oilpatch will be two of the, if not "THE" two shining star sectors in 2000; I plan on owning both. WM is one of the best "buy & hold/average in" stocks that I have seen in quite some time. I have a nice entry here; will sit at $19 and $17; thinking I will see $19 if the Fed hikes twice in a row; $17 only with a DOW blow off. I think WM see's $35 by year end and is a $50 stock in 18 mos. This would be a great play for someone to just throw "X" $ per month at this sector over the next few months - averagin in... can't go wrong imo. I also, have absolutely no problem with owning WM at $22 for 2-3 years from now; WM "IS" a $45 stock again within that timeframe, or we all will have bigger problems than "WM"...financials are the barometer of the entire market's health imo. This is either a DOUBLE, or we have our "generations" sustained Bear and only the Gold Bugs survive anyway (VBG)...