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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (26666)	1/22/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: Eski	Respond to of 64865

Message 12646477 ""MSFT is not a great example of overvaluation, when it is selling at a market multiple and growing much faster. Their accounting is conservative. Msft may well be the only big cap tech that is not overvalued. They will earn about 30 billion dollars in the next 3 years. A 500 billion cap is easy. It is not participating in this charge as it is held down by the on going litigation in many ways. Now, if you had said Sunw, Csco, Orcl, Emc, Jdsu, Amat, Brcm, Aol, Nok...... As far as Dow 36,000, I have no problem with that at all. The dow could have earn. of 1400 in 6-7 years and be priced about right at 36,000+. The problem lies with the nas 100. There are a lot of smart folks who seem very unwilling to say the words, "too high." There are prices that are too high to pay for great companies and we have gone way past them. Just 5 months ago, folks were scared to buy CSCO at 50x current e, but are now wiling to pay 120x, and want to justify it. Sunw' stock is up 300% in a time period where e have grown 40%. Aol is selling at 160X e when management says it will grow at 30% or so. I have never seen THAT happen, without a brutal drop. It is Alice in Wonderland time in the tech world. Can anyone here even begin to conceive of what is going to happen if rumors start flying in late March that 2nd half tech spending is going to slow? This is not an unlkely scenario, that with the fed tightening and rates rising, and with pre and post y2k spending settling down, that growth slows. Not stops, slows. These stocks are priced for no problems in sight. Stocks with 100% growth rates drop 60-75% when growth slows. Heck, 50% drops are normal in high growth stocks on short term scares, even when growth DOESN'T slow.""

To: High-Tech East who wrote (26666)	1/22/2000 1:34:00 PM
From: JC Jaros	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Ken- One of the best investment tips I ever read (I forgot who it was) was this (paraphrased); ask yourself with regard to picking stocks - 'Would I be comfortable holding this stock if I had to leave the planet for 5 years and had no contact with Earth?'. For me in the past, I found answering in the affirmative to SUNW most comfortable, and today the portfolios are like 75% SUNW concentrated. If I applied that 5 year test to SUNW right now, I'd have no problem re-signing for another 5 years if that's the way it worked. That's just me. My point is, not about whether you should have a lot of SUNW in your portfolio or any SUNW in your portfolio. The point is, it's a winning strategy to invest in equities that wouldn't cause you concern if you were abducted by aliens for 5 years (hey, it *happens! <g>). Having said that, I do a little trading too here and there for fun (less than 5%). Although not a rush, I've had a better % return to date with the buy and hold thing, FWIW. -JCJ