Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Davies who wrote (19206)	1/22/2000 5:43:00 PM
From: gpowell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

To be clear, anything that precedes, ATHM's guidance for 2000 end of Q4, in my linked post is not meant to be a restatement of facts or guidance given by ATHM. The proceeding section was a reply to FIRENZA. Message 12633175 Your subscriber estimates are currently clustered around 2.5 to 2.8 million which is clearly very doable". It was not an estimate from ATHM itself. Thanks for the clarifications/corrections to my comments. I will listen to the conference call again (the link at the home site is currently not working). Just some thoughts: The revenue numbers and penetration rate (8% - assuming this applies primarily to N. America) given are consistent with about 2.7 million subscribers (cable). Like you, I think they can and will do better. Did you know for example that 20% of ATHM homes are outside North America and have 7 year exclusivity agreements? Yes, this has been stated in other conference calls. Excite Broadband won't be released until late March (it was mid Feb. before- Hmmm..) If the site is in beta - will someone out there post their review. I was thinking of reducing my position in ATHM, but have decided not to. They still have a great future ahead no matter what the market thinks. The earnings growth rate projections for 2000 will most likely make any investment in ATHM dead money for at least the next several quarters. There should be enough negatives to suppress ATHM's stock price, throw in a few choice rumors, and we have a recipe for continued volatility. This is going to test the commitment of ATHM longs. Previously, I posted that ATHM's stock could appreciate 34 times by the end of Q4 2001. These estimate were based on achievable growth rates from Q4 2000 (retail modems sales 30%) through the end of 2002 and reflect an acceleration of earnings growth when economies of scale begin to payoff. Consequently, I'm not particularly worried about ATHM. I still consider the upside potential worth the risk. However, we can not kid ourselves, there remains considerable risk that the earnings growth is now so far out into the future that incalculable events will intervene.