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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Meathead who wrote (151785)	1/23/2000 12:08:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Meathead...IDC has been pretty accurate of late, to my recollection...I would be surprised if they are so far off (3% vs. your hoped 8%+)...January certainly does not appear to be any sort of blow-out so far...and why should it???....with Windows 2000 coming, and Y2K ending (there certainly had to be some lockdowns...and certainly not all were "unfrozen" Jan. 1 (!)...sounds like some accounts..are getting unfrozen as of end of Jan (quicker than expected, but not enough (I'm guessing).....Europe/U.S. sales looks weak to me (Asia very strong..but such a small %..that it can not help much)... All this, and margin pressure early in the quarter...this just sounds like a difficult one to me...too many negative variables.........Also, corporate buyers were probably savvy enough (to know) that Dell needed sales at end of Jan., and are probably squeezing some un-godly discounts out of Dell......I agree, once we get past this stupid quarter (ironically, the whole "nuclear winter" thing turned out to be much BETTER than everyone had thought, yet still....Dell stock suffers)...hard to imagine that Dell will not have another bang-up year (company)....Kelley correctly points out that Dell will acheive over 25B in revs. this past year...stupendous growth...It is certainly possible that Dell could do ANOTHER 40% y-o-y rev. growth in the next fiscal year...amazing.. But the stock and the company are two different things...the market has cut Dell no slack in many months...the stock is clearly out of favor....although that could change, the more likely scenario, as I see it, is that the miss (IF...I emphasize, IF) it happens, is going to hurt a lot (partially, because Dell would warn, in perception, so late)...The October "incident" is still hurting everything, IMO...I do think the stock will recover relatively quickly, but I am anticipating a tough Feb. for techs...so, it may be skiiing uphill for a while...I'll be looking for a good entry point all the way... If I'm wrong, I'll be the 1st back on the thread, eating crow....and gladly catch any tomatoes thrown my way (which (I will turn into ketchup, since I still have a not-so- insignificant holding in Dell<G>).