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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (11384)1/22/2000 11:57:00 PM
From: Demosthenes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
Eric,

<<My final concern is that the yield curve between 10-year Government Notes and 30-year T-Bonds has just inverted, meaning that the shorter-term instrument now has a higher yield. It's only by a very small amount, but it often brings on problems. For example, in the steep market decline of 1998, which started on April 23 when I gave my sell signal, and ended in early October, this yield curve was inverted virtually the entire time. Yes, the yellow light is flashing.>>

Bob addressed this exact concern today and said the comparison is a good indicator of oncoming recession, but only with comparisons between the 30yr and short term bonds, i.e., 5 yrs. or less. So his yellow light is flashing, but not in any way due to what you describe.

D



To: E_K_S who wrote (11384)1/23/2000 10:41:00 AM
From: Allan Harris  Respond to of 15132
 
Re: "ABBREVIATED VERSION"
Substantial portions deleted in fairness to paying customers.

Conclusion: it's time to become very cautious. We've made huge profits,some in excess of 75%, and should not be so greedy as to want to get the last dime.

Bert Dohmen is participating in a real time public trading model at this link:

moneycentral.msn.com

Since July of last year, with the NASDAQ up 56%, Bert has lost 20%. Looks like only paying customers get his real advice.

A


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