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To: TigerPaw who wrote (15997)	1/23/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: pkapsiotis	Respond to of 54805

Industrial Revolution I don't see how it follows that the next great idea, that nobody has thought of, is coming sooner than the last. The increase in productivity allows people to take out the day to day activities and gives more time to think and this leads to innovation. One of the crucial elements of increased productivity is the speed and scope (leading to more speed) you can now do things. For example, the invention of the steam engine broke the physical limitations of power. At first it was used to increase output by doing better what was already being done. But soon steam engines would begin to change the scope of what was possible. As Clayton Christensen captures in a most brilliant way in "The innovators Dilemma" disruptive technologies will come from low end markets not from the market that one competes. It is the abundance of energy and power of the industrial era that makes it cost effective to find new applications for it. It allows us to lift, move, transform things. It is the abundance of transistors that creates the information era making it cost effective to automate while we can focus on innovation. In a similar way as Gilder has been stating for years it is the abundance of the bandwidth that will allow us to communicate creating open source software and online communities. All those abundances lead to lower costs and thus more applicability of those resources into new markets, thus to an increase in productivity, thus doing things faster thus to more time for the humans to think and innovate. The expected boom in medicine (which we now call biotechnology) is based on those "abundances". My feeling is that the next technological revolution can be related to artificial intelligence (AI) or whatever is going to be called but this AI has nothing to do with what people have tried to do it the past. From how I understand it AI today is based on the assumption that humans will built a brilliant algorithm that will have the ability to think by leveraging the enormous computing power that will be available once you connect all the computers of the world together. I think this is based on thinking in terms of the computer/silicon era. I envision something that is more like what was brilliantly captured in the film "The Matrix". Billions of people's creativity and talents linked together under a powerful network, matrix, or whatever you want to call it. More like an ecosystem that has its own rules and evolving pattern. What we are experiencing here in the thread is a form of a primitive such ecosystem. (no offense to the thread but I am talking REALLY primitive as compared to how online communities can involve in the future with the addition of "knowledge management"). The old paradigm of a "company" that does and sell investment research is over. This model will in no way be able to compete with hundreds or thousands of people that do research for this thread. But as I mentioned in one of my previous posts the challenge for the "companies", or "value chains" or "ecosystems" of the future will be to capture and use all this information thus creating the "Matrix". Thanks, Panos P.S. LindyBill, I read your post (15996) just after I had written this but I thought I just go ahead and post it. Yes, this is what I have in mind too I think you captured it in a brilliant way!