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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (445)	1/23/2000 4:23:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 972

Richard, Thank you for your comments on Silver. It's good to hear from you. I had noted the post concerning the new Silver on the Silver thread and agree that it could increase the market significantly. But, I think some of the battery applications may be even more important. I'm just are interested as you in getting a good feel for the silver market as well as the supply. About a month ago, Einhorn devoted her Commodities column in Barron's to silver and quoted Ross Beaty among others. Ross confirmed his disappointment that the price hadn't moved up significantly. A couple of years ago he was looking for a substantial rise in price. She commented that there was 5 years of supply sitting in warehouses and indicated that such supplies had held the price down. I called her and asked for her source for this comment. She mentioned the standard organizations, all of whom acknowledge that information on supplies in warehouses isn't available. She clearly didn't like being questioned. Personally, I find it hard to believe that there is much available at the present prices or at twice the price. Armstrong made comments similar to Einhorn's about a year ago. He complained that information of warehouse stocks was not available but he claimed to have inside information. I asked him for a clarification. His response could best be described as an emotional outburst without any useful information. Armstrong also made the digital camera argument but I don't think this is valid and, so far, data on applications supports my view. In any event, it seems clear that the demand is already greater than new supply and at some point Ross Beaty will be right. I just hope that day isn't very far off. In a day or so, when I have more time, I will add some comments on stocks. I have positions in both of those that you mention but I like another play better. Cheers, Larry

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (445)	1/23/2000 4:29:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Richard and Dan, et al, On 1/20, the Barron's GMI was 339.97, down from the previous week's 344.56. With the POG up to 287.75 (1/21), the ratio was 1.18, down from the previous week's 1.22. A year ago the ratio was 1.175. The ratio continues, as it has for more than a year, in the range of values that, according the data referenced in post 10, suggests a much higher GMI within a year. Cheers, Larry