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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37830)	1/23/2000 4:31:00 PM
From: heraclitus	Respond to of 99985

Haim, < (10-15 years ago the efficiency of power plants was in the 35% to 40% range)> Be careful when comparing turbine efficiency to plant efficiency. As you stated, the more important focus is cost per BTU (or heat rate). BTW, does this ring a bell.... "this new form of energy will make electricity too cheap to meter" Any new form of "cheap" energy production probably fails to factor in the "environmental wacko" cost. regards, and keep up the great market analysis

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37830)	1/23/2000 6:22:00 PM
From: Zeuspaul	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

the fuel cell concept has merits and can be very efficiently employed in certain fields and as backup power. Until they find a way to produce very cheap hydrogen their future is limited. The FCL (used to be ERC) Molton Carbonate fuel cell runs directly on natural gas and other hydrocarbons. The efficiency is about 55 percent. When the waste heat is utilized the efficiency rises to about 75 percent. IMO the edge goes to the FCL fuel cell over the existing utility turbines on overall efficiency and the green factor. The green factor will not go away and will cause additional pops from time to time. The target market is the utility industry. Transmission costs can be reduced as units can be placed closer to the demand. IMO this is one of the least hyped and one of the most promising fuel cell plays. This company has been developing its fuel cells for a long time and is now gearing up for production. A pending deal with LADWP bodes well for its future prospects IMHO. It is also aligned with Daimer Benz sp? to make truck size portable units for emergency applications. It also has contracts with the Navy for ship based fuel cells. The infrastructure for implementation of FCL fuel cells is already in existence ie the grid and the existing hydrocarbon distribution system. They had one small share offering...they have been able to maintain operations as they have income from research grants? and? so they have not had to issue any more shares. The management seems conservative..no weekly press releases as seems to be the case with some other PR oriented fuel cell companies. It got caught up in the PLUG hype..probably a little ahead of itself right now..although if it were priced ala PLUG and BLDP it would be a LOT higher right now. JMHO..please do not run off and buy any as I want a chance to add to my position...my best chance for early retirement<g> Zeuspaul

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37830)	1/23/2000 10:36:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I too think ceramics have a great future. Unfortunately, I have not researched the players. Could you provide a list of promising companies in this field. PS How is BLDP dealing with the explosion potential? Also, what kind of range are they claiming with the technology, at this point?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37830)	1/24/2000 8:05:00 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim-- You wrote:>>>Until they find a way to produce very cheap hydrogen their future is limited.<<< You're right. Back in 1997 before I made my first Ballard purchase I spent a great deal of time contemplating the creation of a "true" hydrogen infrastructure for PEMs. It is years away, but entirely possible. The most promising method is sea water hydrolysis using solar PV cells...very clean, very doable as the PV technology improves. I saw a web site on a Saudi sea water demonstration project some time ago (and unfortunately did not save the url.) Face it, they got sun, sea water, sand and oil...If oil use drops off they better discover a use for those other resources. In the interrum hydrogen reformers will come into play. Methanol will probably become the fuel of choice for vehicle based PEM fuel cells. FCL's units will find commercial applications....Of course none of this justifies the insane valuations on FC and related stocks. >>>Unless natural gas will be priced cheaper per BTU, than coal or oil I do not see a lot of fundamental gains in energy production versus the modern gas turbines who got up to 60% efficency.<<< Again you're right. I don't see any net gain in energy production anytime soon myself or even within my liftime for that matter. Still environmental concerns will keep the industry moving forward. Re: ceramic engines. Who are the players? TIA