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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary D who wrote (11396)	1/23/2000 8:37:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

"Tremendous degree of complacency" out there. I don't know. I do not remember the market being so high and hearing so much bearish sentiment. I listened to one show today with Michael Murphy as a guest and he is sitting on 50% cash waiting for a tech correction (He has been both very wrong and very right with his market timing in the past). Of course, I think I heard him say last month that he was thinking of going to 100% cash between Dec 17th and Dec 31st as he was looking for a correction then. Perhaps he is already buying back? Last weekend I heard Jack Bogle on the radio say he thought valuations were very high and that we would have a correction sometime, but he would stick to a DCA strategy. I was in line at the grocery store and one of the magazines next to the National Enquire had a headline about the "Stock Market Crash to come in March" and "Why the government doesn't want you to know this"...Usually those magazines would have stories of ex-McBurger flippers in their new yachts bought with QCOM options if we were all giddy bulls. This is all very strange. Anecdotal, but it sure isn't the "everyone is getting rich" theme I would expect for a real top. K

To: Gary D who wrote (11396)	1/23/2000 11:24:00 PM
From: Rillinois	Respond to of 15132

Gary D, If I recall correctly, Bob has said his "timing" model would turn bearish if it forecasted upside potential of less than 5% and downside risk of greater than 20%. Bob has also said that if his model ever went bearish, he would go to cash 100% because he would not ride out a bear market intentionally. We also know that the post 1987 model is supposed to either be in the market or out of the market, not anywhere in between. So given his comments on the radio this weekend regarding the current risk /reward scenario, why has Bob chosen this tactical asset allocation approach? Has Bob lost confidence in his model, or does he just lack the guts to follow through with the models' conclusion. Maybe the model is just one indicator within another model. This new model might be composed of 60% old model and 40% gut instinct, this would explain the 40% allocation. What do you think? Best Regards. Rillinois