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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (151806)	1/23/2000 10:31:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Jim. Re: ASP's appear to be flat to up. DELL may very well still meet or exceed its top and bottom line targets. ASP's remaining at $2100 and units at 3,425 would make the Q by itself. As bad as the IDC number is, there is a silver lining in that now we may be able to use some logic to see how bad Dec. really was. Also, what Jan volumes might look like. Since we don't get monthly numbers we have to use a linear scale.... probably not very accurate but it's something. Using IDC Q numbers, Q2 and Q3 monthly volumes might have looked like this: units % inc may 882.00 jun 927.86 5.2% jul 976.11 5.2% Q2 2,785.98 aug 1,026.87 5.2% sep 1,080.27 5.2% oct 1,136.44 5.2% Q3 3,243.58 In a typical Q4 with no Y2K or shortages etc. Dell usually posts growth numbers similar to Q3. That being the case a blowout Q4 might have looked like this. units % inc nov 1,195.54 5.2% dec 1,257.70 5.2% jan 1,323.11 5.2% Q4 3,776.35 That's not going to happen. The key here however is the Jan number. Can that number still be achieved? If they come close, they hit ~3.5M. Now that we have the IDC numbers, Q4 might look more like this: units % inc nov 1,170.54 3.0% dec 1,053.48 -10.0% jan 1,300.00 NA Q4 3,524.02 Now if we add oct/nov/dec, we get the IDC number of ~3.36M units. But if Jan comes in as strong as it might have been, 3.5M is achieveable So possibly Dec. was bad but maybe not that bad. Or, as you said, maybe it was Oct.. who knows, maybe all were equally weak. In either case, I believe 3.5M is now the optimistic number to shoot for. So, even though the IDC number casts a decidedly pessimistic shadow of doubt, there still exists numerous ways for Dell to make the Q... or not. MEATHEAD