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Technology Stocks : RAMBUS (Nasdaq: RMBS) - THE EAGLE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (791)	1/24/2000 12:49:00 AM
From: Barry Grossman	Respond to of 2039

Thread, Something to keep in mind when doubting the Rambus future. Barry ------------------------------------------------ State of the Web: The Big Guys Have It All By James J. Cramer 1/23/00 2:38 PM ET Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news) did not give $100 million to Dow Chemical (DOW:NYSE - news). It did not give $100 million to Georgia Pacific (GP:NYSE - news). McDonald's (MCD:NYSE - news) didn't just get $100 million from Mister Softee. No, some outfit named VerticalNet (VERT:Nasdaq - news) got the $100 million. In crisp, fresh e-bills. And just when we thought that the market was nuts to love B2B, we realized that the market wasn't nuts enough. Gates and Ballmer were even nuttier -- and, of course, shrewder. These kinds of endorsements keep happening to the Net and they remind me, each time, of the U.S. Cavalry arriving in time to save the Fort -- that's Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news) buying Cerent in case you aren't a John Ford fan -- or Tom Mix cutting the ropes and saving a damsel in distress from an oncoming train -- more Microsoft to VerticalNet. Why should we care about the investments of Soft or the Chisman (one of the many bowdlerized names for Cisco I use each day)? What does it mean to us, as we try to make a few bucks in the stock market? Everything. If you can anticipate which technology a Microsoft or a Cisco is leaning toward, or thinking of endorsing, you can hit a home run. When we at Cramer Berkowitz look at the Net or any other tech investment, we don't like to think about what Wall Street wants to have happen, or what we, personally, want to have happen. We are Lilliputians in the world of giants, where the giants get to win. We look at what Cisco wants to have happen, or Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news), or Microsoft, or Sun (SUNW:Nasdaq - news). These are the companies with the heft. They can endorse strategies and influence corporate behavior well beyond what we can. They set the standards. If they want VerticalNet to win, VerticalNet will do better than HorizontalNet or whoever the heck else there is. If they want Cerent's tools to win, they can integrate Cerent into the last mile, or whatever mile they care about. If they want set-top boxes to win over some other box, they can make it happen. And the standards still aren't set, so there are still players out there who will get the nod for things like wireless Net and billing and customer retention and affinity marketing. The other day we met with a company called Portal Software (PRSF:Nasdaq - news) (we are a shareholder -- you buy it without checking it out, you deserve to lose money). Portal has a billing solution for telecom. Hot area. Why did we like it, and spend time with it and were interested in it to begin with? Because Cisco owns 3 million shares and Cisco is an anointer of new technologies. The fact that Cisco anointed Portal meant that whoever else is out there doing e-billing might as well be out there pounding sand for all we care. They aren't Cisco's choice. Investing in new technologies has never been more fun or more profitable. Not only do the old-line companies never get checks from the big guys, but every day the new tech companies do. Sometimes finding the next recipient of the big guys' largesse is almost all you need in this market. And knowing that such largesse will never come the way of the old economy takes care of the rest.