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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SecularBull who wrote (151849)	1/24/2000 2:23:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

I would say that Dell (the stock) is likely "half-way" home...given that I expect a warning with a week or so...I think either 1 of 2 scenarios will play out here.. (1) Dell's stock slowly recovers the rest of week...getting back to 44 (but struggling as it nears 45)..looks like 45 is big resistence short-term..and then we get an announcement, which sends the stock back to 40-42....which should be the bottom (more or less)..even though I am expecting a fairly lame Feb....hard to see Dell getting below 40 IF a warning doesn't show up in the next week/two and get it down there.. (2) Dell's stock (and/or techs) remain weak during this week...Dell warns....the stock goes briefly to 38-40...and then settles back in low 40's.....waiting for news (probably stellar 1st quarter results leaking)...sparking the stock...that would take, likely, four-six weeks......Rosy forecasts by Dell in the CC...IMO, will not be enough to light the kindling...after (I am assuming) 2 warnings..investors will be a little shy... One bright lining (if I am correct about Dell missing this quarter)...Investors will be lining up in droves once/if the stock ever gets to high 30's..and even 40 will bring heavy buying IMO...regardless of how bad this quarter is.... If Dell does not warn....obviously, the stock will bounce nicely.....and my forecasting ability will look lame to say the least... One alternative (that I hold as highly unlikely) scenario: Dell comes in short on revs and/or EPS....BUT does not warn...waiting for the CC (in order to package it with good news about the upcoming year)......This may, actually, help the stock stay higher (for, in Feb., with every day that the company does not warn, investors will be believing...by golly, they did make it)....However, after a couple PR snafus this past year, I doubt Dell's management would try such a stunt..... Again, as Jim Kelley rightly says, JRI knows no more than the rest of us....As always, it will be interesting...