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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (37866)	1/24/2000 1:18:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I was surprised not to get any response on the question re: NEM. Any opinions here? (Please :-))

To: Les H who wrote (37866)	1/24/2000 2:04:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

Yep great thing now to buy MOT as The fuel cells, which are still about three to five years away from the store shelves, could power a wireless phone for more than a month and keep a laptop running for 20 hours, They are trying to push their stock higher with any news that are in fashion. Soon LU, CSCO, SUNW, QCOM, DELL will have something to do with fuel cells just wonder what YHOO, AMZN, EBAY CA ORCL have to say <gg> are fuel cell running more efficient software or the internet?? Haim

To: Les H who wrote (37866)	1/24/2000 2:15:00 PM
From: flatsville	Respond to of 99985

Les-- >>>You would think MEOH (Methanex) would be next in line for blastoff.<<< I thought about buying a few thousand shares...it's certainly "cheap" enough and has moved off its lows. But the company is tangled up in some legal action over the gas additive MTBE and it's unclear what if any liability the company has. charleston.net

To: Les H who wrote (37866)	1/24/2000 2:39:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

MARKET EARNINGS First Call Based on the earnings that have been reported so far, it appears the S&P500 earnings growth for 4Q99 will be likely be somewhat better than anticipated in recent weeks. It now seems likely that the final results for S&P500 earnings will be 21% growth over 4Q98 rather than the 20% we had been anticipating. A big part of the increase over expectations was that Microsoft and three banks, Chase Manhattan, JP Morgan, and Citigroup, all major factors in the weightings, came in way above the consensus estimates. A large part of the surprise at least two, Microsoft and Chase (plus Intel last week), came from huge investment gains, but it still counts in the stats. With 31% of the S&P500 having now reported, it is clear that companies are beating the estimates by more than they usually do. That was true in 1Q99, because analysts underestimated how soon the earnings recovery was going to start and how fast it would unfold. As analysts came to better understand the nature of the recovery, the companies beat the estimates by less in 2Q99 than in 1Q99, and by less in 3Q99 than in 2Q99. Based on a pattern of trending back to the norm, it appeared the results in 4Q99 would likely beat the estimates by something close to the five year average of 2.7%. However, it seems pretty clear it will be better than that. At the moment it is running 7.0%, but that may taper off as more companies report. As was the case in the first three quarters of this year, a greater number of S&P500 companies than usual are beating and a greater number are matching estimates, while a lesser number are falling short. With almost one-third of the companies having reported, the results are 64%, 22%, and 12%, respectively, for the three categories. That compares to the five year average of 56%, 19% and 26%, respectively. Of those that have reported, a whopping 76% are coming in above 4Q98 earnings, 1% matched, and only 23% had a decline from 4Q98. The two main reasons are probably the big investment gains at some major companies and the likelihood that analysts were overdid the impact of Y2K and component shortages on earnings at many tech companies. Based on the early returns, tech is the sector with the greatest margin of results over expectations. That was unexpected. Next highest were the energy and basic materials sectors, but it had been expected at those two as analysts were having a hard time raising estimates fast enough to keep up with the continuing higher prices. Also coming in well above expectations was the transportation sector, with most of the airlines beating expectations (but most still coming in below 4Q98), likely because most had been better hedged on fuel costs than analysts had thought. Despite the positive surprises in tech, year-over-year earnings growth will be less than the 35% in 3Q99 and the 24% expectations for 1Q00. It likely will be in the high teens rather than the 11% analysts expected at the beginning of the reporting season. Although the oil producing, steel, and chemical industries will not have been heard from in a meaningful way until this week, it is clear the commodity cyclicals will lead the earnings growth parade this quarter. The energy sector will likely double 4Q98 earnings, even with the oil service and equipment industries lagging in the recovery. The basic materials sector, led by the papers, forest products, and non-ferrous metals, will likely be up about 40%. Because of the big positive surprises at the major banks and brokers, the financial sector will be a strong third in earnings growth among the eleven sectors. At the start of the reporting season, the analysts were forecasting 20% growth, but the results for the two-thirds of the sector companies that have reported so far shows growth of 31%. Despite the better than expected results at the airline, the worst performing sector will be transportation, probably down by about 10% from 4Q98 earnings.