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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (59008)	1/24/2000 2:20:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Yeah but what if crude prices break up over thirty before the prices at the pump catch up? For all I know crude could go back to 25 in the next two days and maybe that's enough for the refiners to start making enough money to make gas. At any rate, as the article, suggests, time is starting to enter into the picture is it not? OK, lets say your scenario occurs. My question is; When will it occur? Is there enough time to build the necessary stocks given the demand projections. This is the problem that occurs when stocks get to 10 year lows. Prices get inelastic all around and it gets more difficult to work within the "normal" expectations. Since the US imports 60% of it's crude, what happens if there is a supply disruption of even a week? IMO, the Argus report is more of a warning than a prediction, which is why I posted the header as a question. You could be quite right and things could go as smoothly as you suggest but imo they will have to go "just right" to avoid, say, minor shortages and temporary spikes on a local basis. What happens if some refineries go down - not impossible - eh? Is not California only now starting to recover from those refinery shutdowns we saw last year? We are now entering the gasoline build period, so those pump prices better start running up real soon now, and the price of crude better not go up any higher.