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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (11412)	1/24/2000 3:37:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

David, I usually put my market thoughts here: suite101.com But since you asked?8) and it allows me to toss in a link which I haven't done in awhile? 8) I really don't make market projections other than I feel it will be much higher in 20 years and the trend is up more often than down. I believe I can make money buying great growth stocks out of favor and taking advantage of market inefficiencies to beat the market and I have academic research that supports my position (Dreman), but I follow Sharpe and Bogle in not trying to time the market for the indexed portion of my portfolio. The "topping action" as some call it does not seem a big mystery to me: #1 Most said in Dec that they were waiting until Jan to take profits in their big winners to delay taxes. For example, I sold 1/6th my AMAT position bought at $12 in 1996 for $137 just days ago. #2 Many reallocate assets in Jan and if they were in VTSMX for 60% and GNMA (or just Vanguard Total Bond Index) for 40% last Jan, then they have a LARGE deal of stock selling to do to get back to 60:40 as the GNMA/Bond was dead money and VTSMX went up 25%. #3 Many sold prior to Y2K and might be waiting for a correction to get back in. Last year at about this time I think Bob was worried about valuations and many that follow him on my site lightened up on assets to wait for a correction. They are still waiting to get back in at a lower price then they got out of last year. Problem with getting out of a rising market is you often get frozen out of getting back in and watch it get away from you. #4 The rally might come AFTER the FOMC raises rates 0.25%. I am starting to think the market might actually be telling the Fed what to do... #5 I try to not let what the clueless are doing with their investment money influence me to do something foolish. IF they all want to bid up Amazon.com to encourage Jeff Bezoz to sell stuff below cost, then I go along and order stuff from them as they are being so generous. IF his business model is successful, fine, I am just not betting on it other than with indexed money. I just found a SVHS VCR last night on one unknown website that is $299 vs $399 at most others. I won't invest in that website but it will get my order. #6 Inflation is dead. Check the holds of cargo ships in Seattle for people dying to come work here for $2 a day. Average annual income INSIDE China is something like $200 whereas the higher incomes are on the more prosperous cities (maybe $600/yr) The well educated make a good living, but they are a tiny minority there. Any labor shortage here is artificial and can be changed in an instant with visas. There are young men from Mexico waiting on the Street in my town (Los Altos/ Mountain View Border in Silicon Valley CA) within walking distance of homes that cost $1M to $2.5M and up. They just want to work and send money home to support their families. Give em a green card and burger flippers will not be in high demand. hope that helps. I see good times with much volatility. I am still at 80:20 as that gives you 90% of the upside and 7% of the downside if you take a 10% stock swing either way. Kirk PS Ideally, we get a 10% correction SOMETIME and then Bob goes bullish once again as I sure like it better when Bob, Abby, Laszlo, JoeB and Elaine (to name a few) all agree.