To: MythMan who wrote (3781 ) 1/24/2000 5:04:00 PM From: Lucretius Respond to of 42523
this clown is in for a shock... U.S. Economy Will Expand at 3.5% to 4% Pace This Year, Fed's Guynn Says By Vince Golle and Noam Neusner Fed's Guynn Says U.S. Economy to Grow at 3.5%-4% Pace This Year Atlanta, Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will grow at a 3.5 percent to 4 percent pace this year, helped by productivity gains and low inflation, said Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn. For the economy to keep growing at such a pace, companies must have the confidence that low inflation will continue so they can keep investing in productivity-enhancing tools, Guynn told the Downtown Atlanta Rotary. ''If productivity gains or labor force growth should slip, then the economy cannot continue to grow as quickly without a rise in inflation or a corresponding change in monetary policy,'' Guynn said in the text of his remarks. He is a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate setting Open Market Committee Consumer spending, business investment, inventory building and government spending will help drive the economy forward this year, Guynn said. Since 1996, productivity has grown at about a 2.25 percent rate, and it's averaged more than 2.75 percent in the last two years. Meantime, the nation's unemployment rate is at a three- decade low 4.1 percent and the pool of available workers is shrinking. ''The labor market is at least as great a source of concern as the long-term sustainability of productivity growth,'' Guynn said. There are limits to how many new workers companies are able to employ. ''When we are finally unable to bring new workers into the labor pool, growth will have to slow'' unless productivity keeps on accelerating, he said. Keeping Inflation Low That's why it's important for the Fed to keep inflation from rising. Between 1960 and 1990, when inflation was higher than it was through most of the past decade, business investment in new equipment grew at an average rate of 6 percent a year, Guynn said. That rate doubled to more than 12 percent a year in the 1990s because businesses were confident inflation would stay low. ''In an inflationary environment, though, those additional investments never would have been made,'' Guynn said. Unemployment this year will likely stay close to 4 percent and consumer inflation will probably rise a bit to 2.5 percent and 2.75 percent, he said. With oil prices no longer falling and the dollar weaker against some of its counterparts, Fed policy-makers will have to ''work even harder to make the right decisions'' on interest rates. After raising the overnight bank lending rate three times by a total of three-quarters of a point beginning in June of last year, policy-makers will meet Feb. 1-2 to decide whether to raise interest rates again. Analysts and investors expect them to increase the overnight bank lending rate at least another quarter point at that meeting.