Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (151880)	1/24/2000 5:23:00 PM
From: Alohal	Respond to of 176387

Thompson I-Watch take on today's Dell action: DELL -- Pers Computers -- Technology 24-Jan-00 11:45:53 Dell Computer, which has languished in the mid to low-$40s for much of the time since early October, has lost $2 to trade at $41 3/4 in today's session. The drop comes after Robinson Stephens issued a research note saying that Dell may miss its revenue target by as much as $200-$300 million as a result of a decrease in corporate demand. Institutional activity, per block volume, is high with blocks accounting for about 40% of the 16.5 million shares traded. Taking a look at the volume on Thomson I-Watch, there is considerable participation by both bidders and sellers in the pre-trade market. While a few bidders offered to take in stock around $42, the aggressiveness of the sellers has overwhelmed their bids and shares of DELL recently crashed through that support level. The problem is that the sellers are more aggressive-growth type investors while the buyers are GARP and growth-type investors who are more discriminating in their buying patterns than the sellers are in their selling patterns. Basically, the sellers' urgency is significantly higher than the buyers'.

To: jim kelley who wrote (151880)	1/24/2000 6:23:00 PM
From: Sig	Respond to of 176387

Jim: Working from what Dell said last nov: cbs.marketwatch.com Adding recent comments by others, I calculate minimum earnings of 20 cents and absolute max of 23.7 cents. (8% margins) But most likely is 21 or 22 since Dell always equals or beats. Bears will not be happy with either of these, and expect them to attack the weakest point - if revenues were weak the growth is slowing. If margins are down then cheap computers were too much competition and management was defective. Earning over $2 bil/yr don't count. $30 mm/day web sales don't count.40%+ growth don't count.. With Dell at 44 in Nov, meeting the estimate dropped the price to 41.5 with recovery to ~ 42. Am expecting Dell to be at 45 to 46 on earnings date(WAG)- meeting the 21 cents only may cause it to fall to 42,43. 21 cents and it may go up(should go up, since it would override some bears comments). Conference call is critical, as always Summary: I don't see where we are in any trouble here yet. Sig

To: jim kelley who wrote (151880)	1/24/2000 6:52:00 PM
From: Patrick E.McDaniel	Respond to of 176387

Jim, no one has said anything about Convergenet and it's impact on this quarter. Was it making money do you think? If so, wouldn't those revenues add to Dell's bottom line? Pat

To: jim kelley who wrote (151880)	1/24/2000 10:47:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, wouldn't it be ironic if Niles, who called a weak Q4 this time last year in the face of strong IDC (+13%) data, misses this Q in the presence of very weak IDC numbers? Q400(est) Q300 % chg. Units 3,488 3,230 7.99% ASP 2,070 2,100 -1.43% Revenue 7,220 6,783 6.44% GM 21.0% 20.2% OPEX 10.6% 10.6% Othr Incm 50 40 Erngs 561 484 16.05% Shrs OS 2720 2724 EPS 0.2061 0.1776 It could happen quite easily. MEATHEAD