To: Thean who wrote (146 ) 1/26/2000 2:53:00 PM From: J_W Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 325
From Yahoo - New GKM Report on OPMR by: Livinthemoontime 1/26/00 2:09 pm Msg: 1461 of 1461 Optimal Robotics+*# (OPMR)? Another Major Order; Raising Shipment Forecast-BUY Scot Ciccarelli, CFA Deron Kennedy, CFA (212) 885-4017 (212) 885-4064 sciccarelli@gkm.com dkennedy@gkm.com January 26, 2000 Price: $35.88 52-Wk Rng: 40.75 ? 7.00 Price Target: 52 S&P 500: 1410 Shrs Out/Mk Cap: 13.3Mil/$477.2 Mil 5 Yr Est Growth Rate: 50% Div/Yield: -/- LTD/Cap (1999E): 0% Avg Daily Vol: 139,200 ROE (1999E): 6% Float: 7.6Mil EBITDA/share (1999E): $0.12 FY Ends -- EPS -- -- Fully-Taxed EPS* -- Dec. Curr Prior P/E Curr P/E 98A $(0.52) N.M. 99E# $0.16 N.M. $0.10 N.M. 00E# $0.50 71.8x $0.30 119.6x 01E# * $0.95 37.8x $0.95 37.8x Qtrly -- 1Q -- -- 2Q -- -- 3Q -- -- 4Q -- EPS@ Curr Prior Curr Prior Curr Prior Curr Prior 98A $(0.12) $(0.13) $(0.14) $(0.14) 99E# (0.08)A 0.05A 0.12A 0.02 00E# 0.10 0.16 0.19 0.04 ^ Intraday; @ Quarters may not total due to rounding - quarterly figures are un-taxed; * Assumes a 40% tax rate, company should become fully taxed in '01; # Diluted EPS in US$ as per Canadian GAAP; N.M. - Not meaningful. Another major order for U-Scan; visibility has never been so high; raising shipment projections. Meijer, a private, multibillion dollar supercenter retailer, has agreed to purchase and install a minimum of 100 and up to 150 U-Scan Express systems over the next 18 months. We are now assuming Meijer installs 75- 100 systems in 2000 (vs. our prior projection of 50-75). Meijer is essentially installing two systems per store and operates 127 supercenters. Backlog is now about 100% of our prior shipment forecast and it is only January. While we are going to remain conservative in our EPS projections, we are raising our system sales forecast to 540 from 520. We are maintaining our untaxed 2000 EPS estimate of $0.50 and fully-taxed estimate of $0.30, as the company continues to spend a lot of money in building its infrastructure to support its substantial growth. We are not changing our 2001 estimates at this point. We believe revenue and earnings visibility for Optimal has never been so high and all new orders at this point are essentially incremental. We continue to rate OPMR BUY with a 12-month price target of $52. Fourth major order cements backlog vs. original expectations. Optimal has now received bulk orders from four of the country's largest retailers, including Kroger, A&P, Ahold and Meijer. This is in addition to a plethora of initial orders and early rollouts from various retailers from which Optimal has already received orders for installation in 2000. Orders now need to be a lot bigger than they used to be for them to be deemed ?material? enough for the company to make an announcement. The following is a summary of orders already received and expected to be shipped this year: Company Orders for 2000 Kroger 200 Ahold 100 A&P 100 Meijer 75-100 Other 25-30 Total 500-530 vs. our original 520 system projection and our new 540 system forecast. Additional U-Scan orders and sales likely. The above numbers refer to orders already received and obviously provide the company with substantial revenue and earnings visibility. However, we are highly confident that additional orders will materialize as the year progresses. For example, at this time last year, the company had orders for roughly 175 U-Scan systems and ended up selling at least 275 systems, 100 more than were in-hand early in the year. With greater industry exposure and a significantly shorter selling cycle, we firmly believe additional orders will materialize (although they may take the form of smaller rollouts for 2000 with a more substantial commitment for 2001, which is the way it played out with A&P and Ahold).