I step away for 1 day and the bears intercept for a touchdown???
Howdy, Bob and all. . . and thanks. Yes, we had a terrific time. . . I'll tell you about it later. . .but this day was just too bizarre. I checked in on CNBC now and then throughout the morning and saw little going on, except our SAMs spiked to extraordinarily high prices. . . when I walked out of the hotel today, the markets were fine. . .when I stopped at a Kinkos just 2 hours later on a bad feeling I was getting while driving, I was shocked to see that the "Unibomber" had attacked so quickly and effectively.
The Atlanta Fed Chief said, he thought the 3 rate hikes had not been effective in cooling consumer spending. NO KIDDING! We all knew that it would have little to no effect . . . and we all knew that 1999 Christmas spending was extraordinary. . . why on earth the markets would sell-off with such conviction blows my mind.
Did the bulls suddenly lose their spine? Or did greed set in so strongly that the bulls welcomed some bad news to justify their profit-taking? Perhaps a bit of both. . .
Boy, did I pick the wrong day to be away from the markets! Fortunately, this is still a stock picking market, AND we have picked some real winners. Our SAMs not only saved the day for me. . . .but accounted for a 7.5% gain overall on such a big sell-off day. . .for a gain of about 35% overall in the past 5 trading days. . . and today I didn't trade a single stock. [Keep in mind that I am typically playing VERY aggressive issues as swing trades. . . .fibre optics, fuel cells, Linux type trend plays. . .usually selling peaks and buying dips.] . . .and with heavy positions in my most aggressive portfolios. . . along with many others.
Remember last week when I kept telling everyone to Profitoften on the high fliers? I sold all or part of high flying techs: CMGI, ICGE, VERT, JDSU, YHOO, AOL, TWX, BRCM, INKT and NITE. . . and increased positions in small and micro caps. . . which are proving to be FAR SAFER from corrections than the large caps. . . at least in January.
Over the course of the past week or so. . . added LPTHx [all varieties], ARTT, CICI, IFCI, ADAP, ENGA, IAAC, PVII, ATMS, DTE, EUNI, OPTK, AKLM, PLUG, BLDP, XYBR, IRSN, BDE, USTI and a few others. . . . . so my big losers today were BLDP, CORL, LDIG, OPTK, MYL and core positions in some of the best high fliers like VERT. . . but losers were still offset by the extraordinary gains of the small and micro cappers. . . . the Russell 2000 has been just too hot to ignore.
Well, it was anyway. . . . as for the damage done by todays sell-off, I don't know that I have sufficient info. . . but it appears that the selling was orderly, implying there was no panic. . . . Tomorrow holds the key as to whether this will be another 4 day slam to kill the margin players. . .and liquidate their assets when the market is at its lowest. . . or just a single day of profit taking.
Bob, glad to see the Ultra Aggressive 10 is up 22.35% year-to-date. . .my equal number of shares version has it up 44.7% year-to-date from when I bought in on 01/05 [with LPTHA and ADAP in a race to see which will double first . . both up 94%: techstocks.com [via Classic SI only] If this were a mutual fund, it would be #2 on equal shares. . .and top 20 on equal dollar amount. . . . .http://screen.morningstar.com/FundSearch/alltrytd.html?fundCategory=all&screen=trytd&headup=&Sec=ALL&QueryText=&Select.x=82&Select.y=20 . . . By comparison, the Vanguard Small Cap fund is up 5.7%.
Bottom line. . . this is definitely a stock pickers market. . . and there is money to be made by picking the correct issues. . .in both up and down markets. But picking the wrong issues can frustrate a trader. To those that fall into that category, perhaps more diversification of TRADING STYLES is in order.
Finally, a thought occurred while driving. We only get a handful of months where the bulls are allowed to run free. . . .we must make the most of our time in the sun, by being very aggressive in our trading . . . not merely sitting back on our laurels or relying on the market for gains.
Todays 7.5% gain was by doing nothing. . .zero trades. . . but what I didn't say, was that I truly believe that I could have had the biggest day of the year today. . . + 20% or so.. . had I been in town to sell my peaks and buy my dips. . .
So while the going is good, trading casually. . . it could be phenomenal, if we are FURIOUS in our trading . . .going after as many gains as we can. . . while the water is still hot.
Rande Is |
