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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Night Writer who wrote (76416)	1/24/2000 5:45:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

NW: One of the assumptions of my "predictions" of $40 by mid-year and $60 by end of January 2001 is that COMPAQ will earn $2.00 FY2000 and it could earn more if it keeps all it's promises, especially about cost-cutting. $2.00 eps and a price of $60 would give a trailing p/e of 30 on 31/1/2001. But it doesn't have to be $2.00 because the market anticpates (look at today for example). And by the time we get to October and $1.50 earnings looks safe for the FY, the market will be valuing it on forward 12 months, not the trailing 12 months. If we assume that earnings will be only $1.50 for FY2000 then a forward p/e of 25-30 would support a valuation today of between $37.50 and $45.

To: Night Writer who wrote (76416)	1/24/2000 5:56:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

It has been said several times here and on Yahoo, that Dan Niles (and Kumar) were accurate in the past because they were being fed the numbers by a mole inside COMPAQ. Then it was said that Niles and Kumar had become quiet because Capellas had successfully stopped the selective leaking to analysts. Niles, himself, said last week that nobody knew anything about COMPAQ's 4Q results. Today Niles comes out with fairly detailed numbers about unit sales and revenues. What happened?