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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (59062)1/25/2000 11:24:00 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Slider, best factual FGH post I've seen yet. Of course it'll be shrugged off as propaganda and lies by Mr Diversity, but the rest of us are enjoying the show.

BTW, add COG to your list. I think it's on par technically at least with PXD, NBL, XTO, LD and EOG. It's damn close fundamentally too. It's a little smaller market cap, but a decent enough size to watch.

EOG is probably the safest pick followed by NBL, LD, COG, PXD and XTO. All are so close imho that I'm trading them mostly on a technical basis short term.



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (59062)1/25/2000 11:56:00 AM
From: Big Dog  Respond to of 95453
 
Slide, Your FGH post makes many valid points. However, there is some confusion with regard to MARAD which I will try to clear up.

MARAD is the Maritime Administration and is a part of the Dept. of Transportation. Under the 'Title XI' program MARAD provides loan guarantees to certain parties in order to encourage the use of US shipyards. Note that these are loan GUARANTEES...not outright loans.

Upon application to MARAD, say to build a rig at FGH or any other US yard, there is a process that must be followed in accordance with statutory regulations. The entire process takes about 2-3 months before MARAD will issue its loan guarantee.

The statutory maximum is 87.5% of the total amount (incl. certain associated costs like capitalized construction interest) over a term of 25 years. Guarantees can be for lesser amounts but not greater.

The company who is want the loan guarantee can then take the letter from MARAD to virtually any commercial bank and get an 'instant' loan at an interest rate that is about 100 basis points above the equivalent US Treasury (depends on the term for which the guarantee is to be issued - 7 yrs, 12 yrs, etc.) The low interest rate is possible because the loan is FULLY backed by the US Govt. The company can also do a bond issue backed by this MARAD guarantee, if it chooses.

MARAD Title XI is not considered a 'subsidy'.

Also, the money in MARAD's Title XI budget does NOT represent the amount of loans they can guarantee! It represents the cost of the guarantee to MARAD, which the borrower must reimburse to MARAD anyway. For example: If MARAD has $100 million left in its budget, it can guarantee much more than $100 million in loans. The cost of the guarantee may be 3% of the loan, or $3 million for a $100 million loan. So the MARAD money stretches much further than it may appear at first glance.

MARAD can also, in some cases, obtain extra money during a fiscal year if needed.

Don't think that Trent Lott will let FGH go without work because MARAD was low on money. Won't happen. MARAD backed the expansion of the FGH shipyard a couple of years ago. They won't let that 'go up in smoke' due to lack of the Title XI program funding.

Your points re Far Eastern yards is right on. Koreans just ask 'what price do you need to make this work?'...and they give you that price (I'm exagerating a little, but not much)...profit is not a big concern...at least not in this lifetime.

Those yards have oodles of experience in building rigs and they are very agressive and responsive. World class.

There may be lots of reasons not to like FGH, but the MARAD situation is not one of them.

FYI - The MARAD guarantee for the FGH Brazil rig ($143 million) has been in place for months. The hold up is not MARAD, it is in obtaining a confirmation from Petrobras that Schahin (the driller) still has a firm contract for drilling upon delivery of the rig. To date, that letter can not be obtained from Petrobras. And that is why FGH will remove the $143 million form its backlog number for the 4Q report.

big
atoffshore.com



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (59062)1/25/2000 1:20:00 PM
From: SargeK  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
O/T Mouth & Associates (Perhaps Thou Protesteth TOO MUCH!)

I posed one question with regard to the Tidewater new build program for deep water service vessels: "If NOT FGH, Who?"

This is your response: "..if not "FGH" then who ? - I would start here; these are just the domestic yards - Intnly - the list is huge.

marinelog.com

I ask that you to name one company in competition with FGH for the program. You provide a link to all U.S. Shipyards and throw in the Korean shipbuilders to boot.

First off, the Koreans will not be building the craft needed by Tidewater to operate in GOM. Ever hear of the Jone's Act. Ask Big Dog, maybe he will explain it to you.

Another point, FGH is building a vessel (for use outside the U.S.) for Tidewater in China right now (in the same yard as the recently announced derreck barge). Companies (FGH customers) want competitive (third world pricing); but, they also desire U.S. design, general management and project management which FGH has been able to provide. The two companies continue to enjoy a solid working relationship whereby FGH can bundle all customer needs, both domestic and foreign.

Holloway has repeatedly said he would get rid of none core assets. Perhaps you would like to PROVIDE ONE LINK to information which can be substantiated/verified where FGH is dumping its shipbuilding business. You can't do it, because it hasn't happened.

O/T Big Dog: Would you kindly provide the source of information indicating the Millenium contract will be removed from the backlog during 4Q/99. My most recent contact with FGH/IR indicated it was still viable.

SargeK



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (59062)1/25/2000 1:40:00 PM
From: SargeK  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
 
MOUTH: "DUMPED FGH - MORE VERY BAD NEWS"

Again, your timing is impeccable! Are these the shares you paid $8+ for, trying to play catch-up? >LOL<

Don't you get it? The SPIN isn't working anymore. Nobody believes you with exception of JimL, a few other associates and some other easily influenced minds who DON'T do their own homework. >VBG<

SargeK

HOW many shares are you really buying BEFORE the NEWS? >VBG<<



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (59062)1/25/2000 2:54:00 PM
From: SargeK  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
The MOUTH posted DUMP @ 11:09AM ET

The Market gasped for breath (VBG): quote.yahoo.com

SargeK

What's that? "Timing is everything"? >g<