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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (16310)	1/25/2000 3:42:00 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Cha2, << isn't it possible DoCoMo will be forced by competition to go with the CDMA 2000 specifications - or close to them - (even if calling it WCDMA)? >> Possible, yes. Likely no. cdma2000 & WCDMA (and the standards based variations there of are two entirely different animals and I don't expect the final ITU 2000 specification to ever be totally converged. NTT DoCoMo will IMO implement UTMS with UTRA (ARIB probably or ETSI which will both look pretty close) after first implementing a nonstandardized WCDMA (which won't be much different than UTMS). My opinion only of course. << But Brazil looks far different on those slides than the current rapid adoption of CDMA there would seem to warrant >> My quick glance at the slide looked pretty realistic. LA is TDMA country with CDMA doing fine. Lots of AMPS to convert. As I've said before, its not completely about technology. Its not a Holy War either (really a US thing), although competition certainly enters into it. It is about global mobility, interoperability, and roaming. It is about "400 licensed mobile network operators committed to building and implementing GSM based systems. This includes GSM 900, GSM 1800, GSM 1900, 3G network operators and satellite operators". This commitment includes over 3 years labor intensive work on the part of these operators in contributing to and evolving the UTMS specification. As it relates to DoCoMo, they have been a pioneer, and hastened the development of the specification(s). The alliance between the GSM Association and the UWC Consortium is significant. They are evolving some specifications that I'm not sure 3GPP2 or CDG are yet prioritizing. Perhaps I underestimate the interaction that is taking place between 3GPP & 3GPP2 right now. Time will tell. I am interested to see the responses to your similar questions on the S&P 500 board. I'm not sure exactly who are the primary customers of Strategis, but I think they are essentially generically the same as those of Gartner Group, Ovum, and Yankee Group. I think they are reasonably objective and their perspective is pretty global, as opposed to what we see in the US press which is somewhat parochial. - Eric -

To: gdichaz who wrote (16310)	2/2/2000 11:18:00 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: CDMA (QCOM) v. GSM Forecasts through 2004 - "Wireless2000" market study produced by Micrologic Research and marketed by Forward Concepts. Supplement to Strategis report previously linked for evaluating CDMA (QCOM) growth. Report Says: CDMAONE GROWING RAPIDLY, GSM STILL LEADS cdg.org Excerpts: * shipments of cdmaOne telephones grew 166 percent in 1999 to 42.3 million * GSM shipments totaled 125.6 million in 1999, up 42 percent from 1998. * GSM will continue to lead the digital cellular market during at least the next five years. * 254 million GSM telephones will be sold worldwide in 2004 compared to 180 million cdmaOne telephones and 48 million TDMA phones. * emerging third-generation (3G) phones in 2004 projected at 10.6 million in Europe, 6.8 million in Japan, and 6.8 million in the Americas. The report contains over 200 tables, graphs, and figures. Wireless2000 is priced at $2,850. The Executive Summary which costs $2,850 less <g> is here: mosmicro.com Excerpts: * Worldwide Wireless Chip Market (millions) '99 - $5,128 '00 - $5,480 '01 - $6,680 '02 - $8,950 '03 - $12,690 '04 - $18,720 * Worldwide Cellular Telephone Shipments U.S. Dollars in Millions --------GSM-----CDMA---TDMA--3G-- '99 - $26,368 - $10,373 - $5,350 - $028 '00 - $31,614 - $13,430 - $6,053 - $152 '01 - $33,855 - $18,580 - $6,543 - $1,499 '02 - $36,567 - $22,820 - $8,514 - $2,237 '03 - $36,973 - $29,193 - $8,771 - $3,641 '04 - $40,418 - $37,205 = $8,063 - $5,336 The study shows analog shipments reducing from $3,178 (99) to $897 (04) * Data Over Cellular "Now that digital cellular technology is well established for voice, cellular service providers are turning their attention to providing data-communications services. Japan's cdmaOne network is offering 64-kilobit-per-second packet data communications services, and limited Internet browsing using the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) began to be offered in several countries in 1999" * WAP-Capable Cellular Telephones "We believe that all new digital cellular telephones will include WAP capability by 2003" '99 - 7% '00 - 35% '01 - 75% '02 - 92% '03 - 100% '04 - 100% * The Global Positioning System - Worldwide Car-Navigation System Sales (millions of units) '99 - 5.6 '00 - 8.6 '01 - 12.9 '02 - 16.7 '03 - 20.8 '04 - 26.2 Caveat: I wouldn't take these numbers to the bank until they are scrutinized against some of the other reports recently published or soon to be published. I am particularly leery of the 100% WAP enabled statement and related forecasts. The excellent .pdf file with slides of the Strategis Group Conference Call to Discuss Take-Off of 2.5G/3G which forecast worldwide technology growth are at: strategisgroup.com Strategis Group presentation On "Us Wireless Handsets: Marketshare And Trends" is at: strategisgroup.com - Eric -