Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (89403)	1/25/2000 1:40:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1571153

Dan3, Re:"intels ramp" I suspect there is much truth in what you say. I guess none of us appreciated that Intel is perhaps using a radically different 0.18 process from its 0.25 with some changeover in equipment. I guess they went from 4-5 0.25 fab running at 80% or so capacity in mid year to running 100% capacity utilization with a mix of 0.25/0.18. But as equipment was being changed/qualified it is likely that overall wafer start capacity DECLINED during the changeover. And as Intel ramps up the ramp, I suspect that by mid 2000 they will be essentially migrated to 0.18 - in terms of available product. Mp point is that as wafer sizes decline and yields improve it takes approx 50% of the wafer starts that it took with 0.25. So intel is likely to be in somewhat of a crunch till mid year. And with spitfires on their way with a likely $100 ASP this will put severe pressure on Celeron/PIII 0.25 micron products/prices/margins in Q2. regards, Kash

To: Dan3 who wrote (89403)	1/25/2000 2:23:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571153

Dan3, re:<Intel began ramping the conversion of its CPU FABs from .25 to .18 late last year, and expects the conversion to be complete by the end of this year. It's supposed to be a steady rate of conversion, so let's call it 20% per quarter for 5 quarters (at 5 FABs). AMD has two FABs, and both are now fully converted to (or started at) .18 or better.> Actually, I think PB has been sandbagging us a little here. I believe Intel can and will have all wafer starts on 0.18 by July. Hey, I'll take being 6 months ahead! Petz

To: Dan3 who wrote (89403)	1/25/2000 2:45:00 PM
From: xun	Respond to of 1571153

Dan3, A nice long, opinionated post. <How the hell a near bankrupt AMD ever managed to turn itself into a larger company than Intel (at least as far as .18 FAB capacity is concerned) is beyond me.> I like this most. In a comparative advantage standpoint, it makes perfect sense. Six months is eternity in the Internet age. GTW has got a SWEET deal from AMD, for sure! If GTW's Select SB is successful, both company will make tons of greenbacks out of it. Just went to a GTW Country Store. Has a Select 600 demo. And Select SB 600 is also available. Regards, panic_mob

To: Dan3 who wrote (89403)	1/25/2000 2:56:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1571153

Dan, <How the hell a near bankrupt AMD ever managed to turn itself into a larger company than Intel (at least as far as .18 FAB capacity is concerned) is beyond me.> If that's the conclusion you are coming to, then how can I argue with your brand of logic? Most of your assertions are based on faulty premises anyway. Let's put it this way. AMD made about one million Athlons in Q4 (though not all were sold in the same time frame), and only a small fraction of them were 0.18u. Intel on the other hand made "millions" of Coppermines (2M? 3M? More?). Now, according to grade school math, "millions" is much greater than "a small fraction of one million." And yet you think AMD has more 0.18u fab capacity than Intel? Maybe you meant to say that a higher percentage of AMD's capacity will be 0.18u compared to that of Intel. I'll buy that, even though Intel will always have a commanding lead in pure volumes despite the percentages. Tenchusatsu

To: Dan3 who wrote (89403)	1/25/2000 3:15:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1571153

Hi Dan3: Thanks for the post...Full of good stuff! Unbelievable that AMD with its Athlon and Intel with its high end production problems is virtually the identical situation in existence one year ago when Intel had its PWeeII and AMD nothing to compete in the high end...only this time with roles reversed! Looks like the technical correction of the past 3 days is overwith and AMD can once again assume its upward trend! Not long now 'til its north of $40 again...The fundamentals are just too good to keep AMD down for any extended period!