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To: 100cfm who wrote (16343)	1/25/2000 2:11:00 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Did anyone else have a problem with the graph that showed pcs, cellular and then total handset sales for 99 thru 2004, with the highest annual total being 50-55mm. If that were to be the case we would all be in big trouble. The rest of the slides lost their credibility after that for me. I dont think that there is much to worry about....these reports havent gotten much right yet. I doubt they will start now <g>. Personally these reports give a cross-check on other numbers but they arent terribly accurate. Slacker

To: 100cfm who wrote (16343)	1/29/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

100, << total handset sales for 99 thru 2004, with the highest annual total being 50-55mm. If that were to be the case we would all be in big trouble. The rest of the slides lost their credibility after that for me. >> Then we are all in big trouble. <g> The population of the US is 273 million people, including toddlers. The numbers look about right to me in comparing them with last years forecasts from the major research groups. Although the US is the largest cellular market in the world today, it is not where the growth in handset sales is going to come from. Our copper wire (and fiber) infastructure and lack of "calling party pays", inhibit the growth of handset sales much beyond the forecasted number you see. As for credible, they are by far the most credible I've seen to date, because they are the first study published publicly that takes into acount what is realy happenning in the 2.5G evolution of digital mobile wireles telephony and the delays involved in standardization and harmomization of thhe IMT-2000 3G standards. - Eric -