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Technology Stocks : S1: Doing Business in a Dot Com Depression, -V1 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (705)	1/25/2000 6:34:00 PM
From: Charlie Smith	Respond to of 1013

Joel: Primary one is the timeline for implementation of "e-banking", for lack of a better term. To continue with the telecom analogy, take a look at the 5-year chart of Westell Technologies (WSTL). In January of 1996, they were recognized as the leader in the brand new field of DSL modems. Stock raced from $10 to $55 in 6 months. Just one problem: Their customers (RBOCs) were nowhere near ready to buy the product. Four years later, volume orders are finally happening, but that didn't stop the stock from trading under $4 last year. Talk to bankers about how fast they plan to implement this stuff. A few of them get it (Wells, Citi, ONE), but even the ones who do are in no great hurry. I'm sure Jim Mahan tells all his current and potential customers to hurry and board the train before it leaves the station, but the fact is that this process is going to take 15 years to play out. Ask Pete Kight at CheckFree if the world moves too slowly; he's been proselytizing electronic bill payment since 1983. Stock market sees the world in straight lines, but it doesn't work that way. My guess is there will be lots of chances to buy SONE at much better prices down the road, even if they do end up a big winner. Not many MSFTs or CSCOs come along, though everybody today seems to think they've found the next one. Charlie