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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Al who wrote (13265)	1/25/2000 7:05:00 PM
From: Mr. Mo	Respond to of 20297

Do we need to be concerned about this statement by Sinisgalli? "Given that we are halfway through our fiscal 2000, achieving a subscriber count approaching five million by June 30 will be more difficult than we had expected six months ago." How short are we going to be? I know he adds that they aren't conceding yet, but this doesn't sound real hopeful to me. Adoption rates have to pick up for this stock to move further. Any thoughts?

To: Big Al who wrote (13265)	1/25/2000 7:12:00 PM
From: Brooks Jackson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 20297

I believe another "buying opportunity" is about to appear. This report contains a couple of seriously negative statements: --CKFR may not (read: probably won't) meet its prediction of 5 million subscribers by June 30. "Given that we are halfway through our fiscal 2000, achieving a subscriber count approaching five million by June 30 will be more difficult than we had expected six months ago. However, given the difficulty of accurately predicting the exact timing of partner marketing campaigns, we are not yet ready to concede our ability to reach this target by June 30," Sinisgalli said. (Some of you had noted earlier the danger of CKFR making such predictions. Now they may have to eat their words again.) --CKFR is being forced to cut prices to its biggest customers. Sinisgalli noted that a new pricing structure the Company introduced for its largest strategic partners last quarter has been well received. The structure offers much lower per-subscriber fees, combined with transaction fees and service-level base fees, and is designed to encourage heightened promotion to consumers. Sinisgalli said that the contract CheckFree announced with Wells Fargo during the quarter reflects this structure. I know they have talked about this new pricing structure before, and I know that Pete has talked about making it up on volume, but somehow this doesn't sound good to me. I suspect Wells held up CKFR for some pretty serious price cuts, given the strategic value of Wells to CKFR and Wells' efforts to go it alone. Its good they lost three cents less than expected, but flat subscriber growth, price cuts and doubt about meeting announced targets add up to bad news, the way I read it.