To: Gus who wrote (2034 ) 1/26/2000 5:19:00 PM From: Clarksterh Read Replies (3) | Respond to
Gus - Can we be more honest about NTT DoCoMo's dominant position in Japan and the 2001 WCDMA rollout in Japan, Clark? if you concede that DDI/IDO CDMAOne is growing much, much faster in percentage terms. But I will bet you a lot of money that NTT does not have a W-CDMA rollout in 2001. If they are lucky they will have a city trial (like IS-95 in Los Angeles many years ago), where they beta test all the loading problems in a real life environment. I expect that to take well over a year for W-CDMA (in contrast, I expect that, as an evolutionary product, it will take only a few months for CDMA-2000).The immutable trend is increased global teledensity. In order to make that happen wireless and wireline manufacturers and carriers need economies of scale AND deregulation. Since the USA is obviously the reference model for global telecom deregulation, where are the superior economies of scale a-forming? Unit cost is a clue. I don't think anybody will buy the inartful whoring of Qualcomm as an investment at these price levels just on the basis on any technology (including HDR).
