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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JGoren who wrote (5683)	1/25/2000 11:32:00 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

After splitting the stock 2 for 1 and 4 for 1, it would be impossible to expect too big an EPS upside this quarter. The only thing that was important to me was that the company managed to hit the whisper number at $0.27. I would have liked more, but this company usually gives you unexpected surprises. Last quarter, I was stunned by the bold 4 for 1 split announcement which created unbelievable momentum. This quarter, Dr. Jacobs laid out the roadmap to 3G (1X and HDR) with an unbelievable lack of reservation. I cannot say this enough, Dr. Jacobs was on fire tonite!! On the surface, his comments suggested that QCOM's technology would be required by the service providers for every cell phone and infrastructure base station in the next year as the US converts to 1X. It is no longer a case of what MOT and NOK can produce in their labs. The wireless companies are not going to subsidize phones for these companies when they do not support the higher voice capacity and data speeds that will be offered by QCOM's technology. There can be no doubt that these companies will have to approach QCOM to purchase their ASICS by the end of the year. The number of CDMA users will more than double this year to 120 million. The CDMA conversion in 2001 will be even more dramatic with the shift to 1X and HDR. That is when the installed base of GSM users will be converted to some variation of CDMA. Is there no question that the CDMA base will double every year for at least the next 5 years? In five years, the number of CDMA subscribers will have grown from 50 million today to 1 or 2 billion, depending how fast the GSM networks are harmonized with the global 3G standards. There will be one thing that will be dramatically different this time around for the Q. In the first phase of IS 95, QCOM met alot of resistance from other co's that competed with QCOM for infrastructure and handset contracts. Now, QCOM is the R & D / chip supplier for the whole wireless industry. Also, the wireless service co's will be mandating their chips in every piece of equipment, having watched equipment makers like NOK and MOT fail on ASIC designs for handsets and infrastructure.

To: JGoren who wrote (5683)	1/26/2000 8:59:00 AM
From: DaveMG	Respond to of 13582

Hi Everyone ..sorry about the question marks, I used Word and SI screws up the formatting... I got knocked off the call at the point where IJ was discussing China so I don?t know if anything important came up afterwards but here?s a few quick observations on earnings and the call. Very important IMO, and so far unmentioned here as far as I can tell, is that for the first time Q is making money, lots of money, real money, the kind of money that goes into the bank and is available without borrowing, selling shares, etc. This year Q should bank $800-$1bil to add to the already sizeable war chest. If you add back in R&D, which looks to be close to $400mil, the numbers get even more impressive. Given their track record nobody should underestimate what management ought to be able to do with these kinds of resources. IJ said that 1XRTT is providing burst rates up to 300kbps, which is much more throughput than I had thought would be achieved. Perhaps I was just confused. The word OVERLAY was conspicuously mentioned in this part of the presentation, distinct from the very interesting and entirely new discussion re 450mghz in Europe. One thing that also jumped at me was that for operators to achieve 1X efficiencies, subscribers will have to migrate to the new chipsets, which will obviously be good for Q, and that they will start to purchase the new phones even before the infrastructure is ready. OTOH I?m not sure if this fact displaces Gregg Powers old argument that IS95 has an upgrade advantage vs GPRS because IS95 handsets are backward compatible or not. Here?s the post, well worth a re-read. Message 10698324 Seems to me you all covered essentially everything else I heard and FWIW it does sound as though NOKIA might have signed up for MSM3100?ss or 1X since virtually everybody else is already a customer. It seems pretty clear that we?re looking at a slow year as far as stock price appreciation is concerned, partly at least because the Japanese and Koreans are the only ones moving to IS95b. One interesting aside was that DDI/IDO are implementing 64kbps because they felt it offered them competitive advantage over NTT i-mode, and that they would be bringing out new apps to leverage this advantage. Wonder what those apps might be and if true it might bode well for IS95 vs GSM/GPRS/EDGE. Tero and others have been making a good case so far IMO that throughput speed needs to be partnered with appropriate apps to have any real meaning in the mktplace. Who knows though whether any rabbits will be pulled from the proverbial HAT this year? The Ktel investment was mentioned as one type of investment they would make, an investment that has already doubled. What kind of use are they going to find for all that cash piling up? Hopefully it won?t be sitting around in CD?s. DMG