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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (50666)	1/26/2000 1:28:00 PM
From: Junkyardawg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 122087

Tony, I don't short often but I just shorted NSM at $51. It is being hyped up on buyout rumors and I don't think it will happen. Happy trading dawg

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (50666)	1/26/2000 3:25:00 PM
From: Frederick Langford	Respond to of 122087

Tony, Check this out from Individual Investor: Screening for Lock-Up Expiration Selling INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR ANALYSIS CLICK HERE TO READ DAVID'S SCREEN ABOUT LOCK-UP EXPIRATION SELLING The IPO market started to sizzle at the end of last summer, and that momentum carried on through most of the year. Like this Article? With any IPO there is always a window of time (usually 180 days) when insiders may not sell their shares on the open market. This means that starting in February any investor that has a holding in any of last summer's high-fliers might want to pay notice to when these lock-ups expire. 62 stocks will see their lock-up period end in the next four weeks alone. Of course not all of these stocks will crash on the expiration date, in fact some will not even flinch if new shares hit the market. Studies have shown mixed results thus far, but the sheer magnitude of new issues in the second half of 1999 begs the question if there will be enough demand for the estimated $100 billion in shares. There are different reasons why insiders sell their shares. Directors and officers usually have a long-term interest in the company and will contain their sales to small, scheduled profit takings. Venture capitalists and other beneficial owners though are often happy with their quick profit and cannot wait to find the next hot opportunity. One good example of this is EToys (NASDAQ: ETYS - Quotes, News, Boards). The company was trading at around $51 when its lock-up expired on Nov. 15. The stock today trades now at about $21, and by many accounts the site dominated this latest record holiday season. Is this all attributable to insider selling? Probably not -- but anyone can go to www.insidertrader.com and see that 8.2 million shares have been dumped into the market since that date. (Insidertrader.com is a wholly-owned unit of Individual Investor Group.) Screening Criteria For our quantitative screen we looked for companies that had their IPO around last August with lock-up periods that will expire in the next four weeks. Not all IPOs explode their first day, and many in fact dip below the offer price before they even see their lock-ups expire. Those guys didn't make the list -- the most susceptible stocks to a supply glut are the ones that trade with the most volatility. Therefore every stock on this list has at least tripled in the past six months. CLICK HERE TO READ DAVID'S SCREEN ABOUT LOCK-UP EXPIRATION SELLING Finally, we do not recommend that you short any stock based solely on its lock-up date. The stocks that we selected are otherwise fundamentally fishy, and we feel that the stock will fall without the rush of new shares on the market. The Stocks Tumbleweed Communications (NASDAQ: TMWD - Quotes, News, Boards) helps businesses send secure e-mail messages to customers. The company has 17 customers signed up, of which only five are close to beginning operations. Tumbleweed just beat analyst estimates in an admittedly strong fourth quarter, but the stock did not budge. At $69.88 per share a $1.5 billion market cap is expensive for any company that made $6 million last year -- especially for one that trades a 70 times next year's projected revenue and basically helps companies send mass e-mail. On February 2nd, more than 10.8 million shares will be released for lock-up or 50% of the current number of Tumbleweed shares outstanding. The average trading volume for Tumbleweed stock is 127,000 shares, meaning it would take 85 days for the shares to be absorbed in the float if they were all to be sold. Does this date sound familiar? It is also the day that many analysts feel the FOMC will raise interest rates -- setting up a potential double whammy for shareholders. Fred