To: J.T. who wrote (2424 ) 1/26/2000 1:24:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (1) | Respond to
J.T, basically the main problem i have mentioned, namely a surfeit of complacency , is still very much in evidence, both indicator-wise as well as per anecdotal evidence. the general public seems undeterred by the volatility in the markets. BB stock speculation continues unabated in the meantime. note that the sentiment indicators have retreated a bit from their recent historical extremes, but are still a long way from what's considered oversold conditions. noteworthy in today's trading is imo the repeated selling of S&P futures (note that the market has held up pretty well in the face of that...not exactly a bearish sign) as well as the breakdown in QCOM, which is a leading mania stock. i am beginning to scale out of parts of my BB basket...i get nervous when stocks make such huge moves within a few days time. note that i usually tend to be early with my selling, so it's probably not yet the time for the sector to lose it's appeal. but i rather leave a little bit on the table as opposed to getting too greedy...leave something for the next guy. i have some puts and shorts i accumulated over recent days and they're naturally looking good at this point. i'm hanging on to those - i don't think the selling is done with. overall i expect the market to continue to stay volatile and choppy with fast rotation remaining the norm - however, for a while i expect the downward bias to persist. as expected, stocks and bonds continue to move in opposite directions, and that will cap the market's rally potential for the time being imo.
