Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (16579)	1/26/2000 5:09:00 PM
From: SecularBull	Respond to of 54805

Bill, I've been out of DELL for over a year (for 90% of holdings), and eliminated the last bit in August. The King (that never was, by definition) is dead, but a healthy prince it should be after it gets through this turmoil. I have no plans to buy-back. LoF (formerly LONGonDELL)

To: LindyBill who wrote (16579)	1/26/2000 5:34:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

OK, folks, our G&Ks have been bloodied lately, and even though we are ltb&h types, I think it is good to analyze what has/is happening and perhaps learn some lessons. What has me scratching my head is that, unlike previous times, this selloff has hit our G&Ks the hardest, without fundamental reasons that I can point to. The drop in fall 98 was due to the worldwide economic crisis, and it hit everyone equally; the drop last fall was due to interest rates (which have now been priced in); the drop at the start of January was due to tax selling; and so on. This time, qcom got killed after announcing blowout license/royalty income growth, which is what we have been focusing on for their business model. EMC got hit after beating expectations, down almost 8% today. JDSU is ok after hours, but was down 7% before earnings. GMST did nothing and lost 7% I could go on, but we all know the ugly picture. So on a day when the Naz loses 2.3%, our G&K's lose 2x, 3x, even 5X that in the case of qcom, and this for companies that, we believe, are establishing the best and strongest value chains in technology. In the meantime, companies with little or no earnings, such as ebay, gain 12%. What is going on? a) G&Ks ran up the most at the end of 99, so they will give the most back. Probably so, but this does not explain why companies with the largest earnings growth should be hit the hardest. b) Mo players jumped on board, and they are bailing, taking the stocks down. Again, probably so, especially for qcom, but not every G&K has been a mo play. c) Money is rotating away from large caps and high p/e stocks into value and small/mid caps. Perhaps, but other than utilities, there does not seem to be any other sector establishing leadership. And even utilities were down big yesterday. d) ???? I'm out of ideas here. Again, I am not overly concerned for the long term, having seen many such selloffs, but it is starting to bother me that I can not understand and explain at least to myself what is going on. I believe that once can best hold long term with a good intellectual position in a stock, and an understanding as to its moves. But this volatility and selective hitting of stocks is a puzzle to me. Does the field manual have anything to say about this? Maybe I should re-read it.