Bill, Make up your mind.
First you make fun if I mention what I have then when I am vague.
The right answer is that it varies and I own REFR in many accounts. (Me, my wife, joint, my kids, IRA, different brokerages, etc.) The price of REFR changes so quickly and I have been increasing my position regularly. So, I can say that I have a million or two or perhaps three worth of it at various times.
No higher math is needed. Add up shares, multiply by the price, and voila.
But, I am more realistic. I can probably not sell all the shares quickly without depressing the price, even on these high volume days. My sales today helped stall the progress and my buys helped keep it from dropping and helped lift it. And, I traded what I consider small amounts. I regularly buy/sell six and seven figures a day when I am active.
My real goal is to hold the shares for ages. Since news is likely to be within months and since products are already being built, I expect the company to finally bring in real money and be worth much more. More than enough to retire on.
Just in case, I have an even larger position in IDTC, which has been horrible lately and I have been buying at lower prices than I expected to see again, and I can retire on that even if it keeps dropping. It won't. I understand the business deeply and there is value there if management stops annoying the street. And, I have big positions in all kinds of stuff ranging from INTF to SCH, T, HD, GE, and many other large caps in technology and elsewhere, not to mention mutual funds and even, ugh, bonds.
So, I rarely worry if my REFR is one million or two. It is still not a large part of what I invest, but should become major if the projections are true.
But, as you gathered, I am not a true REFRITE. I also trade stocks. I have made plenty by trading small amounts of all my major investments. I usually end up putting it right back into long-term holds on those stocks.
And, believe it or not, I admire some shorts. I have never done it, and probably would do it with puts if I felt like it. I don't make fun of people for shorting, but you will agree that the old pattern in REFR is gone. Even if REFR fails, or is the fraud you claim, it could take a long time for that to surface. And, I suggest you are wrong and REFR will keep doing well.
So, I don't see why holding a short you made at 10 or 12 or even 20, will be profitable. I really don't. A short at 32 made sense to me, and I did the equivalent by selling and buying back. I saw it as an intra-day play and have done it before. I usually buy back double once I see the balloon let out a little air and then head up. But, I still see no good reason to do a long-term short even if we rise to 50 with no news. The risk that news will come out the next day is too high.
Sure, I can respect your right to do it your way. And, I don't care if you have more or less to invest than I do, or if you believe me. Plenty of others have seen my financial statements and you won't. My point was not to brag but to point out a reality. REFR was a defenseless microcap with an odd assortment of mainly smaller investors that were very loyal, but often not sophisticated. This made it easy to manipulate and lots of folks had fun riding it repeatedly.
It reminds me of what a bully can do. But, I am none of the above. I came with other buddies including folks bigger than I am and with more experience. We took a stand and the crop of shorts folded. I suspect we did have deeper pockets, but that is not the real issue. We bought enough shares at crucial times to get an increase every day. Our opponents did not figure out the strategy and apply a serious effort until it was too late. Frankly, I doubt they could have without bringing in bigger partners. We had a huge kitty to toss into this. Momentum had been established and new people entered the fray, on both sides.
Success breeds success. Folks that made fun of REFR now had it as a newly discovered growth stock on their screens. And, the hints are there that we are not 30 years away from big profits. I won't take full credit, but I did my part and earned my profits by taking risks and stepping up to the plate. I bought lots of shares in November and early December when I was quiet and invisible. I only bought when the shorts drove the price down under 10.
Once I saw the pattern, I decided I could change this pattern with a little help. I deliberately paid more than I had to and kept narrowing the spread. I often bought heavily at the close. One day it took 15,300 shares in the last 10 minutes to hold a small gain but I was willing to buy 50,000 or more shares if I had to. Other days, my buddies stepped in. At one point, we all stopped and the stock kept going anyway. Since then, some are sitting on their laurels and some, like me, keep buying at strategic times or when it is cheaper than usual and looks ready to move. I sometimes trade, but always end up increasing.
If you understand that the stock is no longer defenseless, and the internals are changing too, you may wonder if this is a good place to make money. I tried letting you know since i don't want to hurt anyone, but you must admit that you, and others on this board, chose not to take me seriously. Fair enough. Will you agree the results speak for themselves. REFR is thriving despite your shorting. I respectfully suggest it was for naught and will only get worse. I am not selling out and leaving and can well defend my position. And, I am not alone. The investor base of REFR has bigger bullies than you guys, but we wear white hats.
So, I have a good idea how much I own, but see no reason to share it with you unless you engage in serious dialogue rather than attempt to make fun.
It has been nice, but I think I will now return you to your regularly scheduled board. If needed, I may come back at 40. :-)
Hint. Don't ask me questions if you don't want a LONG answer. I had to hold myself back. :-)
Bink |
