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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SecularBull who wrote (152167)	1/26/2000 5:58:00 PM
From: Sam Bose	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

A Contrarian Play on DELL Cramer's Seen the Movie Before By James J. Cramer, TheStreet.com 1/26/00 5:28 PM ET The tell at Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news) was when Bill Griffeth took "Power Lunch" to Austin and Michael Dell didn't come on the show. Is there a bigger business exec in Texas than Dell? And could it have been more obvious that he wasn't there. Of course, if I were so smart (I can hear my wife saying in the background), why wasn't I short the darn thing? Anyway, this preannouncement, coupled with the fact that my Dell's in the shop in Texas -- motherboard problems -- should probably make me want to shy away from this stock when it opens tomorrow. But call me a contrarian. I think a lot of people expected Dell to blow up. Dell is a terrific company with a terrific product. With many people short the stock, if the conference call goes well, I want to go the other way. I will look to buy it. Tech has been heavy and horrible of late, as if something terrible lurked in the midst. Now, when faced with the horror, I say that I have seen the movie before. It ain't so scary. I particularly want to buy the beaten up telecom names that have been tried and found guilty of being associated with Dell's shortfall.

To: SecularBull who wrote (152167)	1/26/2000 7:47:00 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

To the thread: You don't need spies - you just use published info and talk to suppliers and customers to fill in the blanks, mol. More importantly, this thread missed what I see as the key professional disclosure, if you understand it: Dell said it expects to report revenue of about $6.7 billion for the fourth quarter, which would be up 30 percent from the prior-year period. Unit volumes are expected to increase more than 30 percent on a fiscal-quarter basis, and 50 percent on a calendar-quarter basis, which is the way industry analysts report rankings. This means that January unit volumes, with 2 days to go, is down y/y. So they didn't pre-announce in December because they didn't know yet. If ASP is up because of a better mix, January may not be down y/y in dollars. But if ASP is flat or down, yes. It will be important to get the backlog at 1/28/2000 to know if there is any sugarcoating. Below 30 is very possible IMO.