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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dav who wrote (76791)	1/26/2000 6:32:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

Capellas' 4Q report looks A LOT better at the moment - punchdrunk CPQ makes a 15% sequential gain in commercial PCs while DELL is FLAT... I frankly don't understand how DELL could have missed so badly with the IDC data that we have... The only explanation is that DELL was buying business at any cost... nothing else makes sense... and in the face of that, CPQ made good sequential gains and reduced the losses in the PC group??? Gotta love it. I hope the analysts understand the implications. Also think kindly of the many who have unhedged DELL positions, lots of good folks who just didn't want to believe the Texas Money Machine was out of gas.

To: dav who wrote (76791)	1/26/2000 6:36:00 PM
From: David R. Schaller	Respond to of 97611

I wonder if Dell shareholders would have been happier as the owners of shares in the #2 PC maker which made the projections rather than the #1 which didn't?

To: dav who wrote (76791)	1/26/2000 7:45:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Saw an article on Street.com titled "Capellas May Not Be Up to the Compaq Task" Could not read it though ***THE STREET.COM-----NOT!!!!!**** by: go_with_throttle_up 1/26/00 7:33 pm Msg: 136206 of 136207 This is the article attributed to The Street.Com and Jim Cramer. It is NOT! This guy is a BIG DELLHEAD. Parts of the article did more to promote Dell. This character is a 'contributor' to The Street.Com. << Capellas May Not Be Up to the Compaq Task >> By Jim Seymour, 1/26/00 5:52 PM ET * Watching Compaq (CPQ:NYSE) CEO Mike Capellas on CNBC's "Power Lunch" from Houston today, I was struck once again by how tough his job is. * And how he's probably not the guy for it. * Capellas is one of the good guys in this business…..sometimes companies in as much trouble as Compaq need a kick-ass leader more than they need a good and decent man as a manager. * You can make a case that Capellas has done a fair job since he took over the reins in July 1999. …the board was backing off and giving Capellas the room he needed to maneuver… …Capellas having nearly absolute authority…I think his very limited progress so far in fixing Compaq's deep, nearly systemic problems is not encouraging. …Compaq's stock price is up a little from around 25 when he took over in July…CEOs are supposed to manage shareholders' assets…Capellas gets at least a C+, for about a 12% move… …Compaq's earnings report on its fourth quarter…beat the First Call/Thomson Financial analysts' consensus estimate by three cents…this is not good performance for a company with Compaq's size and presumed power…hell of a quarter-over-quarter fall from 1998…even a Pfeiffer-hobbled Compaq earned 43 cents on about the same total sales. …Compaq has slowly begun to refresh its product line… …big issues remain unaddressed -- or, at best, half-addressed… …still hasn't begun to solve its distribution problems… …still hasn't shown that it has any idea what to do with the troops and product lines it inherited in its acquisitions of Tandem and Digital Equipment… …Ashok Kumar points out…still puts way too much emphasis on its very-high-end Himalaya and Alpha servers… …has apparently stalled out in a kind of reorg interruptus...the company has gone less than halfway toward fixing the problem…finishing the job no longer seems at the top of Capellas' agenda. …Capellas spooked the market Tuesday with his Greg Maffei-like warnings that, while he thinks 2000 earnings could be up 15% over the disappointing 1999 results, we won't see that turn for some time -- and, at least implicitly, he sees a difficult year ahead. "The first quarter will start out a little bit slow," Capellas said Tuesday. "We expect revenue to decline quarter-to-quarter due to seasonality and be backloaded due to the release of Windows 2000." Investors who bought into Compaq at its 52-week low have nearly doubled their money -- or at least they had before Tuesday's discouraging earnings report, and the subsequent slide in share price. …some analysts have been inching Compaq up in their ratings, from "hold" to "buy." …seen as good signs. …I see worlds of hurt ahead for Compaq, despite this burst of enthusiasm…Capellas will pull Compaq out of this swan dive, but not soon, I think, and maybe not before being replaced by another leader. * Sad to say, shareholders' investments in Compaq look to me like largely dead money -- at least for the near term. NOTE: With All Of The Credible Analysts Who Are Pro-Compaq, Look At What He 'Dug Up!'