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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6363)	1/27/2000 8:29:00 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

Interesting, Dell barely changed from the close. $39.5, up $3 from the aftermarket close. I consider this a bullish sign.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6363)	2/7/2000 10:57:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 10293

You were right, Dell was no howler (In contrast to the other techs which went at a discount, including Sun, MSFT). It hasn't really gone in the reds but the market performed better during these days. Well it is Michael Dell's problem, not mine.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6363)	3/3/2000 2:06:00 AM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10293

WEXLER REVIEWS HIS TRACK RECORD... ...and doesn't like what he sees. (I have this thing about referring to myself in the third person. It's so Mr. P$nk-like) I have started doing a little tax preparation and have been reviewing some of my 1999 trades as well as a check of my track record YTD: Short synopsis.... What went right: Several bright spots in tech. NVLS was a standout as was AMAT. Many good trades in high quality names such as SUNW. A very nice ride in COMS. A few shorts worked out - thanks to some fortunate timing - such as WAVX. COST was strong through most of 1999. What went wrong: A big mistake to short small and micro caps as money went flooding into these issues across the board and promotional techniques became more persistent and effective. it probably would have been best not to short anything at all...and this trend seems to be continuing into 2000. The biggest mistake of all was selling a lot of tech too early or hedging big chunks of big winners that went on to become even bigger winners after the stock was sold or called away. Overall performance would have been - at a minimum, 40 to 50% better if I had simply gone on vacation instead of overtrading these issues. I scared out of several winning position even though my analysis was correct, most notably AAPL which was sold at a loss. Second biggest mistake was in spite of correctly identifying the interest rate trend (higher), I moved my large cash position (from the early sale of my winner tech stocks) right into the stocks that would be most negatively affect by rising interest rates...most notably doggy financial issues such as WM, ONE and SAFC. Fortunately, I didn't suffer large losses in these stocks when I finally got out because I bought them pretty close to the floor. However, the opportunity costs - if I had simply kept the money in the tech winners - were enormous. Conclusion: 1) I violated a very simple rule: always let your winners run, though I was fairly disciplined about cutting away my losers. 2) I overtraded. I do feel that it has become necessary to trade more frequently than I did in the 80s and 90s, but my activity in 1999 was a little jumpy, panicky and extreme. In conclusion, not a horrible year, and not a losing year (total short positions amounted to a small percentage of my overall portfolio). But a mediocre return relative to the general market, and a lousy return compared to the NAZ.