Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2591)	1/27/2000 5:05:00 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Dale, Trying to guess what will happen tomorrow or next week won't do you much good unless you are a daytrader. Nope. Not a daytrader and not a short term player either. Long term, buy-and-hold is about the only style I'm capable of understanding. <g> I search for undervalued stocks that might be a good turn-around candidate with good growth prospects, or growth stocks with a minimum projected 15% 3-5 year earnings growth rate. At a 15% earnings growth rate, it may be somewhat reasonable to expect that your investment would double in 5 years should the growth in stock price shadow the growth in earnings. Doesn't always happen that way, but the odds tend to favor it. That's a comfortable level of risk for me. I think that should DELL's stock price drop precipitously tomorrow, then the stock may very well be a candidate for me to consider for the longer term. If the price is say, somewhere between $25 and $30, then I think it may be a fair guesstimate on my part that 5 years from now the stock might easily be selling at or near $60 per share. selling PC's and telephone handsets is not a very profitable business these days Some day in the not too distant future, PCs will be perceived to be similar to a commodity, and box maker stocks may be perceived to be similar to commodity stocks. Should DELL not modify their business plan/model in future years, they may eventually find themselves with little to no growth prospects in the box market. However, I think that for the near term future (say 5 to 10 years), box makers will do quite well. As with any investment, one must monitor long term trends, especially in the technology sectors. Look beyond the current conventional wisdom and find the companies that will enable the post-PC Internet devices and the companies that will provide the information services you will use there. Ah, "I see!" said the blind man. Easier said than done... Any suggestions? I'm all ears. Just call me Spock!!! Or Perot... 'Tis not an easy matter to correctly predict where we'll be in 5 or 10 years. Trends are not always as easy to spot as say the Internet trend was a few years ago. What will replace the box? What will supplant the Internet? Who will deliver these services in the future? If I knew the answers, I'd share them with you. Honest, I would. But I don't have any answers at the moment. The current technology that we use today is used by a mere fraction of the world's total population. The vast majority of people have never posted on the Internet. The vast majority of people have never used a computer. At some point, the rest of the world must "catch up" with those of us fortunate enough to be enjoying today's technologies today. That's why I think that box makers will be around for some time to come, or at least the next 5 to 10 years anyway. I hope. <g> KJC

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2591)	1/28/2000 1:34:00 PM
From: Enam Luf	Respond to of 3543

Dale, How's this for guessing... Message 12282559 An excerpt from my first post in April 99 ref'ed in the above message. <<Once it leaks out to the public that the 1Q:2000 forecast calls for lower revenue than 4Q:99.... that's when all hell will break loose... the move will be preceeded by higher than normal volatility as instituional investors bail out early. The big drop should occur during the first week of February, 2000 IMHO. >> I sincerely hope I'm wrong about the coming bust, but I haven't seen anthing to make me change my mind since I made those posts. Also, remember CLAC? Have you checked 'em out lately? I'm holdin on tight, lookin for another 75% + upside there (given that the market doesn't collapse <g>). -enam