Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (64654)	1/26/2000 11:32:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 152472

Qualcomm Expects Wireless Data To Spur Handset Sales By JOHNATHAN BURNS (This repeats an article originally published late Tuesday.) NEW YORK -- Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) Chief Executive Irwin Jacobs, admitting the company will enter a slump in chip sales during the next quarter, said the company will still meet consensus earnings expectations for the year and quarter. "We just see this as an exciting period," he said. "I think the whole movement to data will be very exciting for us next year." Qualcomm, a leading maker of chip sets for wireless phones and a patent-holder on crucial industry technology, said it expects chip sales to be down for the second quarter of fiscal year 2000 from the first quarter due to seasonal factors and a shortage of handset components. The transition by customers from Qualcomm's old chips to new chips is also partially to blame. Investors reacted to the news in after-market trading, sending Qualcomm's shares down to 134 1/2, a 10%, or 14 1/2, drop from its Tuesday afternoon Nasdaq closing price of 149. Lost in the concerns over the company's next quarter was Qualcomm's performance in the fiscal year 2000 first quarter. The company reported Tuesday earnings, excluding a charge, of 25 cents a share on revenue of $1.1 billion, compared with net income of 8 cents a share on revenue of $981 million last year. None of the second quarter projections are "cataclysmic," said Ed Snyder, analyst with Hambrecht & Quist. "But to support this kind of (stock) value, you're going to have to be up and to the right every quarter." According to a First Call survey of analysts, Qualcomm is expected to post earnings of 25 cents a share in the second quarter of fiscal year 2000 and record full-year earnings per share of $1.02. The company said it was comfortable with those expectations. Jacobs and the rest of Qualcomm's management put a positive spin on the coming quarter's projections during a Tuesday evening conference call, saying that carriers are no longer keeping large inventories of wireless phones. They also said component shortages that have nothing to do with chip sets are affecting Qualcomm's shipments of chips. The slump in chip sales will be offset by revenue gained by the company's sale of its handset business to Korea's Kyocera Corp. And the company expects better days throughout the year and into the next, when chips handling wireless data begin hitting commercially. Jacobs said he believes wireless data will drive chip sales in 2001, and that many handsets will be replaced as the application becomes widespread. He also said adding content to the company's chip sets will offset the expected 20% decline in the average price of chip sets. "We believe every CDMA operator will rapidly introduce the technology," he said. The company will begin field testing its next-generation chip sets - called 1X - by the midpoint of this year and expects to see distribution in Korea by the fourth quarter and in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2001. And company executives said they see the convergence of broadband and computer applications possibly leading to a day when the phone will be the computer; hence computer-makers would buy chips from Qualcomm. Despite all the potential, Snyder said he expects the company's stock to show strain Wednesday. "I think the stock's going to come under some pressure," he said. "There will be a lot of people taking money off the table. The company is solid. They're going to grow." Qualcomm's shares had appreciated more than 927% from its year-ago price of 14 3/8 to its Nasdaq closing price of 149 Tuesday. -Johnathan Burns, Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-2020; johnathan.burns@dowjones.com Briefing Book for: QCOM

To: waverider who wrote (64654)	1/27/2000 12:30:00 AM
From: jmanvegas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

DH: The most important play for the next 10 years is wireless - no question about in my mind - therefore Q wins hands down long-term. That being said, I believe that there are only about 5-6 million broadband connections in the USA currently. We have a 10-year build out of optical networks to be done here alone. And probably, and I'm guessing at this, 25 years or so for worldwide build-out. Think of what it would take to build and lay fiber in China or India or S. America, etc. So both companies will do great, although the royalty streams for QCOM should be more awesome from a pure profit viewpoint in the years ahead. As far as the short-term, please refer to my previous post #64623 regarding QCOM. We're range bound for the next several months and traders will have a field day. Towards the latter part of this year, the gorilla will arise again and clear some serious brush. Near-term JDSU should outperform based upon their forward looking statements. I also believe JDSU will outperform QCOM this year percentage wise. JDSU being added to the S&P 500 should help as well if that happens. JMHO. The best bet - hold both long-term and prosper. But QCOM will go through more skittish times over the next 3 months or so and has more resistance to clear - a short-term view. Further market corrections in the tech area and both will be hit hard, QCOM harder than JDSU. As always, FWIW. No one has a crystal ball. It's my gut that is telling me this. And you know what, FA, TA, P&F - you name it - nothing is infallible in this volatile market. This is one hell of a volatile market and it reminds me of a casino circus atmosphere with CNBC and all the talking heads as the ring leaders. I guess investing will never be the same anymore. Goes with the times. Geez, remember the days when you made a 1/4 - 1/2 point on your stock and you were thrilled. Now we talk about 10-baggers in 9 months and if that doesn't happen, let's move on to something else. This can't or won't hold up long-term - something's got to give. jmanvegas

To: waverider who wrote (64654)	1/27/2000 12:49:00 AM
From: Detail-MD	Respond to of 152472

QCOM article from TheStreet.com... Die-Hards Stand by Qualcomm in Face of Selloff By Scott Moritz Staff Reporter 1/26/00 6:24 PM ET It was the whisper that roared. Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - news) shares plunged 16% Wednesday, leading the Nasdaq to a sharp retreat after the wireless-phone concern Tuesday posted earnings that failed to beat the Street's most bullish expectations. Investors latched onto the highflying company's sober sales outlook, knocking 24 points off the stock after the biggest tech bulls on Wall Street, Merrill Lynch and Salomon Smith Barney, made high-profile downgrades. Call it the other side of momentum, or the hangover from 1999's stock-of-the-year 2,600% gain. Yet even as the shares tumbled Wednesday to close at 125, the largest one-day drop in the company's history, many of Qualcomm's loyalists were, as always, seeing nothing but upside. Message boards were crackling with quick analysis and opinion from the legions of individual investors that make up nearly half of Qualcomm's shareholder base. Even in the wake of the selloff, the reaction of many shareholders and analysts hints at the staying power of this bull market. The Bright Side That's to say, for nearly every pessimist ready to bail, there seems to be a hardcore optimist, unfazed by the day-to-day volatility, hanging on and even buying on the belief that Qualcomm is at the core of all future wireless voice and data technologies, despite the competitive challenges in its way. "Look on the bright side," wrote Rsea at midday, viewing the scene from the "glass-half-full" perspective. "There have been buyers for 40 million shares so far today. The story has not changed; just the players." Analysts were hardly of one mind Wednesday either. After the hour-and-15-minute conference call with Qualcomm executives Tuesday evening, analysts came back with mixed verdicts. Some were impressed with the company's greater-than-expected growth in royalty revenue. For PaineWebber analyst Walter Piecyk, for instance, the Qualcomm dip came as a surprise. Piecyk last year predicted that the stock would jump to a split-adjusted 250 in 12 months, igniting a ferocious year-end rally. Piecyk could only scratch his head at the downgrades of his peers at Merrill and Salomon. For him, the earnings report and conference call were cause to feel good about Qualcomm's projected dominance in the phone-chip business and its improving royalty stream. "This is a stock that is prone to wild swings," says Piecyk, "and unless quarters are perfectly clean, the stocks react." Piecyk has a buy rating on Qualcomm; PaineWebber has no banking ties to Qualcomm. Call Me On the other hand, Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Ching issued a report Wednesday downgrading Qualcomm to neutral from accumulate, though he maintained a long-term buy rating and a price target of 149. Salomon Smith Barney's Alex Cena also reduced Qualcomm to a neutral from a buy Wednesday. Neither Merrill Lynch nor Salomon Smith Barney has banking ties to Qualcomm. Both analysts cited a seasonal drop-off in sales and said any lag in the stock would represent an opportunity to catch up to a rich valuation. Ching was cautious because of the company's transition to a new line of chipsets and noted questions about the second half of this year. Salomon's Cena based his downgrade in part on the lack of major catalysts ahead for Qualcomm that would justify the type of upside the company enjoyed last year. "Qualcomm is a stock that has gone from a highly controversial, contrarian story, to now, a very well-known story that a lot of people are enthusiastic about," says Mark Roberts of First Union Securities. Roberts has a strong buy on Qualcomm, and First Union has no banking ties with it. "So on its face, the upside is a lot more limited than it was last year."

To: waverider who wrote (64654)	1/27/2000 10:11:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Surfer, In from a long 2 days in New Orleans and Baton Rouge~ Cafe Giovanni, unbelievable, Chef told us he was just nominated by Mondavi for the rising star award, anyway, here I go~ Mile...did I read that you sold some Q after hours last night? OK, that's cool...but my question is why did you wait so long? I didn't. I have been scaling out of it on the way up, sold some prior to earnings and before. Did I sell at the top. Hell no! If someone did they were lucky! Remember, I had 130% (margin) in the QCOM on the way up (from 44 or so) and turned $1 into $10 last year. I AIN'T STUPID, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. I know that sounds dumb, but if you were planning on holding that portion long term (were you?) you should NOT have sold at all. I still hold QCOM now and will hold the rest LT IF you were planning on trading that portion, why didn't you sell earlier? I did, I don't post all my trades as no one cares and they shouldn't anyway. I'm not being stupid here. My point is a trader interested in profits would have sold BEFORE this situation today Again, I did. Traders do not sell AFTER panics like what we saw today. Disagree, some people buy calls prior to earnings hoping for upside surprises (gambling) and when it does not happen they blow their positions out at a loss. Same thing here, I held some shares "hoping" for a nice surprise, didn't happen. I sold. I still hold shares. So where is Rick going with this? Not sure yet. <gg> Just kidding, but I think you just disagree with my investing/trading strategies and are trying to poke holes in it to make me seem stupid to the board (in all due respect, but I don't care because I am my own person) If you did sell because of the correction, you let your emotions pull the trigger. Again, I sold Q on the way up and NEVER intended to hold 130% in the Q LT. why didn't you think that way last month when every one was happy? Again, I did, I sold on the way up. I do this line of thinking all the time to keep my thoughts clear. FWIW. Good! I sincerely hope I helped in outlining my thinking. In closing, I am a human being, therefore,I am emotional, just like you showing your emotions by lashing out at certain posters. EVERNE has different goals and objectives. I get a kick out of SI and all the posts that are so macho and Machiavellian in nature. You know, "I am in total control and everyone else is a flea" (sorry QOE, you know I hate royalty) You have to step back and just laugh sometime. Where am I going with this? I just wanted to give you the common courtesy of a reply even though I think your questions were half baked and tried to ridicule me. That's fine. I am confident enough in what I do and who I am to answer your questions, whether you agree or not. Regards, MileHigh PS- Closed below the 50 day MA, time to load up, only problem is that the NAZ hasn't corrected yet.