To: Dale Baker who wrote (2596 ) 2/2/2000 3:05:00 AM From: EL KABONG!!! Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3543
Short article on where to invest with rising interest rates...biz.yahoo.com Tuesday February 1, 8:29 pm Eastern Time Where to invest when interst rates rise? By Amy Collins NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - If interest rates keep rising, where should a smart investor deploy his or her cash? A good question, said Wall Street analysts, though the sages have no clear consensus on how to best weather the effects of more expensive borrowing. On Tuesday, as the U.S. economy set a record for the longest economic expansion in its history at 107 months, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues began to meet to determine how to keep growth at a sustainable level without igniting inflation. Greenspan and the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday is widely expected to hike the 5.5 percent federal funds overnight lending rate among up to 5.75 percent. Economists predict two to three more quarter-point raises are due later in the year. And if the economy slows, as is the intended consequence, investors will scour the markets for new options, analysts said. ''If you thought interest rates would be rising sharply, you wouldn't want to own cyclical stocks because Mr. Greenspan is trying to slow down the economy,'' said Jack Shaughnessy, the chief investment strategist at Advest, referring to companies that go boom and bust generally along with broader economic cycles. ''The traditional sectors that have been hurt are housing, consumer durables, autos. Those are the sectors that as far as Greenspan is concerned, have to suffer. He wants overall consumer spending to slow down,'' William Cheney, the chief economist for John Hancock Funds. But for the long-term investor, a sell-off of cyclicals could prove to be a buying opportunity, said Richard Babson, the chairman and president of Babson-United Investment Advisors, Inc. in Watertown, Mass. The rising interest rate environment is less worrisome to the long-term investor who is already buying stock based on company fundamentals, he said. Everyone running to one sector of the market tends to mirror the uneven list of a ship when passengers concentrate on side. Shaughnessy said investors should look toward companies that derive more of their revenues from overseas and strong fundamentals. ''It's the technology companies with strong positions or the multinationals, or companies with low debt ratios,'' he said, citing Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - news) as one of the expected beneficiaries. ''Certainly the oil sector would be (good.) They're doing well because of rising oil prices because of demand outside the U.S. Also paper stocks (due to foreign demand.)'' Many analyst said that as the economy slows, the high-flying technology stocks will have the farthest to fall. ''I think it's negative for technology. I think it's negative for any sector that's dependent on borrowing. Any company that doesn't have a strong balance sheet (will have problems,)'' said George Rodriguez, the senior vice president at Guzman & Co. in Jersey City, N.J. While analysts varied on where to invest, they did agree that the rates will continue to rise until Greenspan gets the economy back where he wants it. ''Given the things Alan Greenspan has been saying, it's tempting to say the safe place to be is out of stocks,'' Cheney said. ''It's hard to see that any section of the market would escape broadly unscathed,'' KJC