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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john p. carney who wrote (35687)	1/27/2000 10:30:00 AM
From: scrooge	Respond to of 36349

yup >EOM<

To: john p. carney who wrote (35687)	1/27/2000 11:12:00 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 36349

JPC, No this is more than likely not the time to move on. The time to move was at $18 in hindsight. A few reasons that this is not the time: 1.) The ME unit sale. Think about how much cash equivalents that added to PAIR. Ask yourself: Would you like to own PAIR yourself? You could buy it for 900 Million and finance/offset the purchase price with the 450 Million of net cash assets PAIR has. Don't for a minute think that ALL of PAIR's competitors can't read a balance sheet and they don't see the same thing. Do you think they would want some of PAIR's technology and sales, quickly and cheaply, without another price slashing war? 2.) Due to #1, Management turned the heat up on themselves to produce results or else. On a scale of 1 to 10 they were at a 5. Add more cash, stir in some competitors high stock valuations, add a dash of angry shareholders, and you have all the ingredients for a total and swift loss of control. The heat just got turned up to a 7 this week, and will soon reach boiling point if they don't get results. The balance sheet WILL attract attention from suitors. 3.) The risk of moving to another dsl stock is high. Obviously you could find one that is better managed and with positive momentum. But would your buy in price have a better risk/reward scenario than here? None of the other companies, except ADTN financially compare favorably to PAIR. They are all priced to perfection and full of risk. PAIR is priced for, well, failure. 4.) You've been here a long time. If PAIR does get it right, your capital gains would be Long Term and 20% tax rate. 5.) Poison Pill. In sum is no defense.

To: john p. carney who wrote (35687)	1/29/2000 1:16:00 AM
From: P314159d	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36349

Looking for another entry here. I had to bail because I feared a margin scare and we got it. PAIR simply failed the last move, but can ... A. do an aboutface right in this area for a double bottom or, B. do a lower low ala last down draft to around 10ish (I think someone else pointed that out last time we broke 12). Indicators point to B for me, so I wait. But if in PAIR here, you have to see that even this downdraft coupled with the fundamental game going on with the sale of assets, that PAIR is way better than cash or bonds or half the NAZ mkt. Best of the DSL lot maybe not, but still a compelling play for a buy , turnaround or magical DSL contract ( they are coming out more frequently now). Remember TLAB in no uncertain terms said that they were in the market to buy a company and it will exceed 1b. purchase. unfortunate that with ECIL stock failure, they are more attractive to TLAB now. But on that note a little PAIR, ECIL, and NN just to be sure is an easy portfolio for this year. Hell they may ALL win a turnaround. ADTN/PAIR bet still on JPC.