To: Bill Harmond who wrote (92352 ) 1/27/2000 8:41:00 PM From: Victor Lazlo Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
William, here are a few initial thoughts re PCLN- <<Priceline's (NasdaqNM:PCLN - news) fourth-quarter operating loss was $12.7 million, compared with a loss of $12.9 million in the same 1998 quarter. >> When a co uses newly-issued shares of its stock to buy invetory, of course it can get inventory cheap, and sell it a bit less cheap. The name of the PCLN game is DILUTION. Profitablity will not matter when there are 4 billion shares out, 3,999,879,990 of them in the float. <<The net loss per share, excluding certain items, was 6 cents, 2 cents better than analysts had expected,>> Look for "certain items" to be very significant and consistently recurring, showing up in PCLN financials from now through the next 20 years, or until its demise, whichever occurs first. I'll bet on the latter. <<``In 2000 we will target revenues of $1 billion (compared with $482 million in 1999), and we will move up our date for profitability from the second half of 2001 to the first half of 2001 -- which is a substantial difference,' said Dan Schulman, Priceline president and chief operating officer. >> Their growth is predicated on moving further into no-win markets. Markets where there is no deadline for the expiry of goods- they're non-perishable. These are no-win markets for PCLN, yet they expect invetors to think they can make a buck there. Nope. Besides, Jay and Dan like to pump the stock up with phony PR's (ref cars, b2b, and China) so why not make silly claims to future profitability? After all, nobody remembers that AMZN was going to be profitable in 1999! <<He said analysts' estimates of a loss of 25 cents per share in 2000 are ``in the right ballpark.'>> "Only if 450 million additional shares are printed, that is." -- fine print. More shares reduces loss per share - great trick for $$ losing co's to pull! Otherwise, PCLN is a sound, healthy co!! Victor