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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (8973)1/27/2000 2:29:00 PM
From: JDN  Respond to of 17183
 
Bless you Bill for a voice of reasonableness in the howling wilderness. I am just so angry over a couple comments my broker related to me by some dumbass who obviously not only knows nothing about EMC but nothing about financials in general. And supposedly this guy is a fund manager. Thank GOD, I manage my own funds!! If I ever had any doubts that sealed it with mutual funds. Bunch of Damn kids with little or no experience, just some fancy degree they probably got by cheating their way through college. JDN



To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (8973)1/27/2000 2:47:00 PM
From: DiB  Respond to of 17183
 
Bill, re: volatility
don't forget April of 1999: From Jan to April EMC rose from around 100 to 135, then came announcements from other well-known companies and EMC lost 40 points in a week. It build a base around 100 and split 2:1 in May. Now it is 200 pre-split.
I see similar situation developing now: unbelievable expectations->stock gets ahead of itself by 20-30 percent->quick correction->split->life goes on.

On another note: here is an article about ATT entering ASP space. EMC mentioned as a partner.
yahoo.cnet.com

-DiB



To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (8973)1/27/2000 2:56:00 PM
From: Donald B. Fuller  Respond to of 17183
 
I have been a happy holder of EMC x 5 years. Every single pullback has been a buying opportunity. I have no reason to think that pullback number 25 is any different than the first 24 - usually a transient market overreaction to comments made by analysts (invariably misinterpreting the data).



To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (8973)1/27/2000 3:26:00 PM
From: Xpiderman  Respond to of 17183
 
EMC Feeds The Data-Hungry Net Machine
By Todd Spangler, Inter@ctive Week

zdnet.com
January 27, 2000 10:19 AM ET

EMC Chief Executive Mike Ruettgers cites a Romanian folk saying to explain the growth prospects for his market-leading storage com pany: If you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. The nonstop rush to e-commerce, he means — regardless of what shape it takes — fuels increasing demand for bigger, faster disks.

"We're where all the information lives," Ruettgers says.

EMC (www.emc.com), which traditionally found a home in the data centers of the world's largest corporations, has built itself into a powerhouse hammer of storage for the Internet economy.

EMC turned its attention to the Internet space only recently, having previously fo cused on larger companies with sales of at least $500 million. "A year ago, we only had a kind of casual interest in the Internet," Ruettgers says.

Now, however, Internet customers represent the key opportunity for the company. By the third quarter of last year, sales to Net companies accounted for 10 percent of sales, up from 2 percent in 1998. Ruettgers won't say how he expects EMC to fare in the "dot com" world, but he predicts this will be the year when the world's 2,000 biggest companies deploy their Internet strategies — many of them already are EMC customers.

Investors have snapped to attention. EMC's stock price skipped up more than 130 percent last year, from roughly $43 at the start of January to more than $100 by the end of 1999. Ruettgers, who has predicted EMC's revenue will hit $10 billion by 2001, likes to compare EMC to infrastructure companies such as Cisco Systems (www.cisco.com), which has a firmly established lead in its markets.

That comparison is valid in several respects, one of which is the cost of EMC's storage systems. Michael Adams, an analyst at Giga Information Group (www.gigaweb.com), says EMC is able to charge roughly twice the industry average because it has a track record for rock-solid reliability. "People are still buying EMC, and the reason is that when it comes down to price vs. can I store my data safely, the latter wins," Adams says. "The boxes don't break."

Also, like Cisco, EMC has an aggressive direct sales force. When Hew lett-Packard (www.hp.com) surprised EMC in June 1999 by severing its reseller arrangement, EMC didn't miss a beat in recapturing business it might have lost through HP. It later won a trademark infringement lawsuit against HP for using "MC" on its new storage systems.

"EMC said, 'We'll go right after that installed base of HP users,'" Adams says.

Looking ahead, what will drive EMC is new lucre from Internet installations. The storage demand from Net companies is on an explosive curve compared with traditional enterprise markets. EMC estimates the average company's storage requirement doubles once per year, whereas Internet companies see storage double in about 90 days.

The storage challenge for e-commerce companies is that data on the Internet never dies, says Mike Mael, vice president of applications and Web services at PSINet (www.psi.net), which installed $15 million worth of EMC equipment last fall in its data centers. "In the Internet space, content is created and it never goes away, so the market for reliable and ever-increasing storage increases to grow," Mael says.

EMC competitors are stepping up their attempts to cash in on the Internet-fed mountains of data. Sun Mi cro systems (www.sun.com) has scaled up its storage systems, sold in conjunction with its high-end servers. IBM (www.ibm.com) says it recently started shipping Enterprise Storage Servers, code-named Shark, which provide up to 11 terabytes of storage, exceeding the capacity of EMC's highest-end 9TB Symmetrix data storage devices.

How will EMC stay ahead of competitors such as Compaq Computer, Hitachi, IBM, Storage Technology and Sun? To better address the midrange market, EMC last year bought Data General (www.dg.com) for $1.1 billion. Furthermore, Ruettgers says, EMC will spend $1 billion on research and development over the next two years. Most of that development work will be on software, because Internet companies increasingly need automated storage systems and management tools to tame the billowing gigabytes of data, he says.

"The difference [from our competitors] is that at EMC, all of our best people are working on storage. I'm sure that's not the case at IBM or Sun," Ruettgers says. "The other guys are several years behind in terms of hardware and software development."



To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (8973)1/27/2000 5:22:00 PM
From: JRI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17183
 
Question for anyone who listed to the CC:

Jim Cramer wrote an article, either today or yesterday, that is claiming that Laura Congliano (sp?) of Goldman Sachs, apparently, asked some-sort-of-question during the CC.... that took the luster off of EMC's results...Any idea what that was ? (Concerning the .02?)

Thanks in advance.



To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (8973)1/28/2000 1:34:00 AM
From: Gus  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17183
 
Great post, Bill.

This ATT deal is quite significant, in my opinion. ATT is competing hard against WCOM for the Global 2000. EMC has an alliance with Sony for highly-automated backup storage products that should help it in Japan and elsewhere. ATT has deals with BT in Europe (Concert) and with NTT and Japan
Telecom (from the purchase of the IBM Global Network).


AT&T Targets ASPs, Enterprises

(01/27/00, 11:50 a.m. ET) By Chuck Moozakis, InternetWeek
AT&T on Thursday said it is targeting ASPs and enterprises with a set of data hosting capabilities.

The carrier unveiled what it is calling its Ecosystems for ASPs initiative, offering providers infrastructure, data and application hosting, and last-mile services, according to Kathleen Earley, president of AT&T data and Internet services.

As part of the initiative, AT&T also announced partnerships with IBM, Sun Microsystems, Hewlett-Packard, Cisco Systems, and storage vendor EMC -- all of which will resell AT&T's hosting capabilities as VARs.

The offering will also include two new hosting services, geared to ASPs and enterprises. The first -- intelligent content distribution -- will provide caching capabilities using technologies from Inktomi, InfoLibria, and Novell. The second, dynamic storage, will be based on enterprise-class storage products from EMC.

AT&T will offer the services from its network of data centers. The carrier now has four, but will grow that number to eight by midyear. By the end of 2002, AT&T will have 26 centers, Earley said.

The ASP program and intelligent caching is available. The storage service will be available in March.